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Minor League PLV Grades: Week 22

After Payton Tolle's debut, another Red Sox arm is catching some eyes.

Here is another check-in on PLV and Fan4+ darlings around the minors. Instead of looking at the biggest names, let’s look at some of the best recent performers who may not have the prospect profile to earn dynasty respect, but could make their real-life value known soon.

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Checking in on Big-name Prospects:

 

Connelly Early, 23, Boston Red Sox

MiLB Season Stats: 20 G (17 GS) | 94.1 IP | 2.67 ERA | 31.0% K% | 10.2% BB% | 1.14 WHIP

Weekly Stats: 1 GS | 4.0 IP | 0.00 ERA | 46.7% K% | 6.7% BB% | 0.50 WHIP

 

While watching a highly-touted Boston Red Sox make his debut for the big-league club this past week, it makes me wonder who has the “next man up” curse next. The AL East club has gone through so many starting pitchers this season, and with six starters on the 60-day IL alone, it calls into question their organizational depth as the postseason race hits fifth gear. There are a couple of arms on the 40-man roster ready to go in Triple-A Worchester, but if Boston went to the war chest for the best performing pitcher in that crew, it would likely lead them to left-handed pitcher Connelly Early.

Boston’s fifth-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Virginia, Early has accelerated through the system in 2025, earning a July 29 promotion to Triple-A Worcester after dominating Double-A Portland. He pairs a sturdy 6-foot-3 frame with a deep mix built around a genuine out pitch, the changeup, and his trajectory now places him a step from Fenway. Early had a 2.51 ERA and 12.1 K/9 over 71.2 innings in Double-A, followed by a 3.18 ERA with 10.3 K/9 across his first 22.2 Triple-A innings; combined, he sits at 10–3, 2.67 ERA with 122 strikeouts in 94.1 frames. That swing-and-miss portfolio with run prevention at two upper-minors stops is the backbone of a legitimate near-term rotation candidate. Notably, he was promoted with a 2.51 ERA and 96:29 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Portland, and he logged his first Triple-A win on Aug. 9 with five innings pitched, seven strikeouts, and just one walk, proving his arsenal translates against veteran bats.

Early wasn’t a raw prospect coming out of the draft, but his arsenal’s development has been much quicker than expected. His fastball has touched 97 MPH in Triple-A late this season, sitting 92-94 MPH on any given day. HE isn’t painting the corners with that pitch, but hammers inside to right-handed batters, usually resulting in foul balls or batters watching it ride in. It isn’t an overpowering pitch by any means, but has a respectable .309 xwOBA and 19% whiff rate. It all sets up his best pitch by many evaluators, his changeup. He throws it more than a quarter of the time, but the cambio still gets a 37% whiff rate and 33% CSW% in Triple-A. He locates that pitch exceptionally well, plus it h as the plus-movement that makes it so deceptive. He has a cutter that freezes batters, an underrate slider, and a developing sinker to round out his arsenal.

Role and risk are the dynasty levers. SoxProspects pegs Early’s ETA around mid-2026, with a realistic outcome of a back-end starter and a ceiling of a steady mid-rotation arm outlook if the breaking ball consistency keeps coming. That squares with what I’ve seen: above-average strike throwing, few home runs, and enough whiffs to matter even if the fastball remains more setup than finisher. In fantasy terms, you’re buying category shape—solid strikeouts via the changeup, an ERA that can ride with park neutrality, and a WHIP that likely sits near league average more than ace-level upside.

Verdict for long-term dynasty: a strong hold in 15-team formats and an add in 16–20 teamers where innings with strikeout viability carry premium value. Early projects as a high-floor, SP4 type who can post SP3 stretches when the changeup is landing and the slider command clicks. If your build prizes proximity plus stability over boom-or-bust stuff, he’s the kind of arm to roster now before a likely 2026 audition turns him from stash to streamer.

Take a look under the PLV hood:

 

Weekly Four-Seam Standouts

 

As the season wears on, watching how fastballs improve or change down on the farm has been interesting. As new faces break into rotations or minor tweaks turn from blips to consistent factors, it is important to keep an eye on pitch shapes. Pitcher List’s Fan 4+ is a model based on the “Fan-Tastic 4” stats: velocity, extension, induced vertical break (iVB), and height-adjusted vertical approach angle (HAVAA), compared to the average four-seam fastball. What are some marks from Triple-A and Low-A’s Florida State League that jumped off the page this week?

 

Daniel Guerra, 21, Toronto Blue Jays

Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 116 Fan4+ in Aug. 30, 2025, start

MiLB Season Stats: 21 G (12 GS) | 78.0 IP | 3.46 ERA | 24.6% K% | 10.3% BB% | 1.17 WHIP

 

Right-handed pitcher Daniel Guerra earned Florida State League Pitcher of the Week honors for that six-inning no-hit gem, another step forward in a breakout stretch that really dates back to early June. His strong finish could push him into top-30 prospect consideration heading into 2026, but even without the rankings boost, it’s been a stellar first full season with the Dunedin Blue Jays. He’s trimmed the walks, upped the strikeouts, and leaned on a slider with a 31.8% CSW%. Add in his fastball velocity and extension, and the pitch continues to play up. He’s not a stash candidate just yet, but his name deserves a mention this week.

 

Miguel Ullola, 23, Houston Astros

Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 117 Fan4+ in Aug. 27, 2025, start

MiLB Season Stats: 23 G (20 GS) | 95.1 IP | 3.68 ERA | 27.5% K% | 16.5% BB% | 1.40 WHIP

 

It’s the walks for me. Astros prospect Miguel Ullola has the fastball-slider combo to overwhelm hitters and pile up whiffs, but the command is holding him back. His two most recent starts showed what happens when the walks don’t spiral, but in his three other August outings he issued 12 free passes to just 50 batters over 10 innings. The raw stuff is as good as anything in Houston’s system, yet the organization keeps testing him as a starter when his ceiling as a high-leverage reliever looks incredibly clear.

 

Joe Boyle, 26, Tampa Bay Rays

Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 132 Fan4+ in Aug. 28, 2025, start

MiLB Season Stats: 16 G (15 GS)/78.0 IP/1.73 ERA/33.2% K%/10.9% BB%/0.99 WHIP

 

Command, command, command. Those have been the glaring red flags every time the Tampa Bay Rays have called up right-hander Joe Boyle this season. Acquired from the Athletics this past offseason, he looked like the perfect project for an organization that thrives on maximizing pitcher development. Boyle remains a work in progress, though, and while his Triple-A Durham numbers suggest he’s ready for another MLB shot, his four August starts tell a different story. He did bounce back in his first Triple-A outing since June 29, tossing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts—but also three walks. The free passes remain an issue, yet there’s no denying that his fastball is electric, with the metrics to back up its status as a truly elite pitch.

 

Welcome to the Bigs

 

Taylor Rashi,  29, Arizona Diamondbacks

MiLB Season Stats: 40 G (2 GS) | 67.1 IP | 3.48 ERA | 24.7% K% | 10.3% BB% | 1.37 WHIP

Debut: 3.0 IP | 0.00 ERA | 23.1% K% | 15.4% BB% | 1.33 WHIP

 

Again, the high-profile debuts from this past week have already been covered in greater depth than I would go here. The New York Mets fanbase, and baseball at large, is over-the-moon with Jonah Tong’s production and potential on the mound. The Boston Red Sox bullpen spoiled Payton Tolle’s debut, but the formidable southpaw was better than advertised against the Pittsburgh Pirates and he will have his mettle tested down the September stretch. Both have very solid MLB futures ahead, even though their pitching styles couldn’t be more different. But, an MLB debut only comes once and it is special no matter how late in a professional career it comes. Getting that call even at 29 years old had to be special for Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Taylor Rashi.

Rashi is a prime example of the players set back by the lost 2020 season. Not saying the league made the wrong decision, but it really hindered the development of a couple of years in the minors. Rashi was a 23rd-round-pick by the San Francisco Giants in 2019 and he was already older than many of his peers at 23 years old. He got 10 games under his belt in 2019, but then going into his age-25 season for his first full professional look, Rashi started behind the eight ball. The Diamondbacks selected Rashi in the minor-league Rule 5 Draft following the 2022 season after he had a great season in Double-A. He was a slow riser with some injury hiccups along the way, but found some footing in Triple-A this season in his age-29 season. Better late than never right?

Rashi is the 16th pitcher to record a save in Arizona this season, an MLB record. There hasn’t been an it guy in the Diamondbacks bullpen, and that has been a large issue for their overall season’s success. Still coming in and shutting down the Milwaukee Brewers for three innings is no easy feat. He struck out three, while allowing two hits and issuing two walks. Two of those punchouts came with one out and two runners on in the seventh inning, showing Rashi buckling up under the pressure. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball when it comes to velocity, but his overhead delivery gives him some north-south looks in an east-west world. His stuff is not overpowering on any of his pitches, but his splitter stuck out as the best pitch. Rashi just has very good command and will never be the guy to blow a pitch past the opposition, but he can hit his spots and has a swing-and-miss pitch that mirrors his fastball out of the hand.

Arizona optioned Rashi back to Triple-A Reno the day following his debut, but his name was already in the record books. Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Luvollo said that was a tough conversation to have after Rashi’s outing, but 62 pitches equals a short start and some downtime the Diamondbacks couldn’t afford in their bullpen.

“I told him that his time will still come, to go down [to the minors] and celebrate what he did, and embrace it, and know that he helped us win a very big baseball game, and go back down and keep dealing, because his time will still come with us at some point this year,” Lovullo said.

Will Rashi get another shot this year—or ever? That’s impossible to say. He’s not a dynasty stash or a breakout waiting to happen. But in a week dominated by Tong and Tolle, it’s worth remembering another pitcher who seized his moment and carved out a special debut of his own.

 

Pitchers that made their MLB debuts this past week: 

Jonah Tong, 22, New York Mets

Payton Tolle, 22, Boston Red Sox

Mason Barnett, 24, Athletics (according to ESPN)

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