Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
It’s the week of the Trade Deadline! Pitchers always seem to be the main targets this time of year, as plenty of top teams have rotations and bullpens depleted by injury. I’ve chosen a few of the main names to cover to see whether PLA shows they are a good trade investment or not.
Joe Ryan – 3.27 PLA
Is Joe Ryan the target of all targets this trade deadline?
Eno Sarris certainly thinks he should be. And yeah, Ryan is an incredible pitcher. He has the best PLA of any player discussed today, and honestly, I think he’s better than the stat gives him credit for.
Ryan’s main offering is his four-seam fastball, which has an argument for the best heater in the game. It’s not the velocity, extension or vertical movement that makes it elite. It’s the flat attack angle it comes in at. A fastball with a flat angle that hits the top of the zone a lot is basically untouchable, and Ryan is the poster child for this in the modern game. His PLV on the heater is a pretty incredible mark, and it shows with the excellent results he has showcased with the pitch every year.
Secondaries have always been a bit of a question for Ryan, as many speculate that his fastball dependency was the reason he wasn’t regarded as highly as a prospect as perhaps he should’ve been. The main secondary pitch for Ryan is his sweeper. This pitch has really been quite the development for him, as it showed plenty of promise this year and has added more drop and sweep compared to the previous iteration of it. Rounding out the arsenal are a splitter, sinker, curveball and slider, which each just kind of does the job, which is support the fastball. The fastball is the key to Joe Ryan, and its incredible PLV is why he has such a good PLA.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan is moved. I err on the side of him staying put just because it’s rare to see an ace of that caliber moved, though with the market featuring plenty more middle/back of the rotation types, I think a few desperate teams could throw everything out there to pick up Joe Ryan
Mitch Keller – 4.11 PLA
I feel like Mitch Keller is a bit of a controversial pitcher this year, and plenty of other years.
He has name recognition and has had stretches where he’s been a really good arm. His ratios this year have been great,
The big issue for Keller is that he has a lot of mistake pitches per PLV. He doesn’t have the most eye-popping arsenal (though PLV loves his sweeper and slider), but he is able to pound the zone with his pitches which allows him to take advantage of weaker lineups. Unfortunately, that also means plenty of pitches that catch too much plate, which can be punished. His fastball is one of the worst offenders, as it gets tons of strikes, but without any excellent traits, it can be a risky piece to the arsenal.
Another piece to Keller’s success is the depth of his arsenal. He has six pitches that consistently make their way into the mix, which keeps hitters guessing a lot more than dudes who rely on two main pitches.
Mitch Keller almost certainly gets traded this year, but PLA says that perhaps he won’t be able to maintain the success he’s had.
From the low-ceiling, high-floor guy who is outperforming his stuff to pretty much the exact opposite in Sandy Alcantara.
We all remember Sandy’s incredible Cy Young year that was unfortunately followed up by him missing a year and a half due to Tommy John Surgery. Now, he’s back, and he’s been pretty bad. The numbers have stabilized a bit overall compared to when I last spoke about him, but as a whole, yeah, it isn’t pretty.
The one positive is that the velocity is mostly there! He isn’t quite touching the numbers he did right before he got hurt, but you’re really splitting hairs there. He is one of the hardest-throwing starters, and that applies to his whole arsenal. Each pitch he throws is in the 90th+ percentile of velocity for that pitch type. His sinker still grades out impressively well, which makes sense with its impressive velocity and his ability to throw strikes with it. The four-seamer is kind of the opposite, though. Despite being thrown in the zone more than other years in his career, he hasn’t been able to get strikes with it at an above-average rate.
Rounding out Sandy’s arsenal are a changeup, slider, and curveball. The changeup at one point was his most renowned pitch, as it had impressive velocity and played well with his fastball mix. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to command the pitch, as its strike rate has dropped significantly.
Edward Cabrera – 3.74 PLA
So, has Edward Cabrera figured it out?
Cabrera entered the league with immense hype. He was the prodigal son with his incredible arsenal that featured so many high-octane offerings. The unfortunate thing for Cabrera is that he stagnated, largely due to having very little control. Cabrera was a pitcher who threw the right stuff, but had iffy to full-on bad execution.
So, what does his arsenal look like now? Well for one, the changeup is his most-used pitch. It’s basically a fastball at this point, as it comes in at a ridiculous 94mph. Not to worry though, as there is still a difference between that pitch and his heaters, as both his sinker and four-seamer sit at 97. In terms of PLV, these two fastballs see a world of difference. The sinker is one of the better pitchers by the metric, as it gets great horizontal movement and finds the zone with regularity. The four-seamer, despite the high velocity and similar horizontal break, is kind of the opposite. It gets all over the place, location-wise, and it doesn’t have the vertical movement, extension or attack angle that many great heaters have. In essence, it’s an empty velocity pitch.
Now, we still need to touch on the breakers that Cabrera has. He features his curveball a lot, as it is only narrowly edged out by the changeup for the title of Cabrera’s most-used pitch. The curveball is electric, as it has a higher velocity than most hooks, which gives it an excellent CSW%. The slider has similarly excellent velocity, though PLV grades it lower due to a lack of significant break on the pitch and his struggles locating it.
Whether Cabrera will be moved is yet to be seen, but this is a nice bounce-back year that PLA seems to corroborate. Cabrera is a great pitcher with great stuff, and it will be interesting to see if a contending team can unlock him further.
Seth Lugo – 3.80 PLA
Oh boy, where do you even begin with Seth Lugo?
He has a MASSIVE arsenal. He’s one of those pitchers who is able to overcompensate for not having the best raw stuff by being able to throw whatever, whenever. He really has a chance to be a huge piece for teams looking to acquire him, as the varying pitches he throws allows him to have a pretty high floor and based on his dominant 2024, a decent ceiling as well.
Lugo starts and ends with his curveball. The thing is a monster pitch, with over 3,000 RPM. It’s interesting that he throws it 31% of the time, easily the most of any offering he has. It still works though, as hitters cannot get to the pitch.
Lugo has three fastballs, but none really stand out. All are below-average per PLV, which largely stems from the fact that he isn’t able to consistently get strikes with any of them, and none have the velocity you’d want from them if they were your primary pitch.
The other two main pitches that round out Lugo’s arsenal are his changeup and slider. The change piece grades out around average, which is nice because PLV can underrate some of the game’s top changeups, while the slider grades out as a very effective pitch, likely due to it also having an extreme spinrate.
It’s hard to say where Lugo is going to end up, I see him probably staying in a blue jersey though, whether that’s with the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets or Cubs. I’ll probably be wrong here though.
David Bednar – 3.69 PLA
David Bednar has to be moved… Right?
Many relievers have seen their names come up in the trade deadline conversations, from Jhoan Duran to teammate Griffin Jax to Félix Bautista all the way to Emmanuel Clase. But it feels hard to believe that any of them will move. Not saying they won’t, it’s pretty likely at least one gets shipped out, but there are still question marks about each. What shouldn’t be a question though, is that the Pirates could get a haul for Bednar, who has turned it around after an awful season last year.
Bednar has a pretty simple arsenal. He throws his four-seamer half the time, which is a smart decision. It’s a fastball with a flat attack angle, solid velocity and extension and pretty good induced vertical break. Bednar’s other main offering is a curveball, which does grade out a bit below-average, as it is a relatively slow, looping curve that mostly just gets strikes.
Though it isn’t used much, Bednar’s splitter might be his best pitch. It grades out elite via PLV, and the swinging-strike rate matches, as it is one of the most whiff-worthy pitches in the game. It does make sense why he doesn’t use it as often, as splitters can be erratic, especially at a high velocity like Bednar’s.
So yeah, Bednar is probably one of the best options for closers available right now at the deadline. Let’s see where he goes!
Pete Fairbanks – 4.48 PLA
Our last pitcher is a closer who has looked good in the ratio department, but the underlying metrics show that he could be overperforming.
Pete Fairbanks might not have seemed like a big trade candidate a few weeks ago, but with the Rays hitting rock bottom over the past two weeks, they might be open to selling. Fairbanks
Fairbanks is mainly a fastball/slider pitcher. His slider is a bit more like a curve though, as it has a lot more drop than plenty of other reliever sliders while also sacrificing some of the velocity that his contemporaries have. This makes it an overall effective strike pitch, but it doesn’t get the whiffs like some others. We all know that Fairbanks has a high-octane four-seamer, though interestingly, it grades out below average for the third season in a row. This is likely because the pitch has lost some of its vertical break, while it still comes in at a steep angle.
Fairbanks also has a changeup that is surprisingly nasty. It’s rarely used but it’s the fastest in the game at 94mph. It essentially is like the Cabrera change piece that we spoke about earlier, and it is loved by PLV for this.
Will Fairbanks get moved? It’s hard to say. The Rays can be unpredictable at the deadline. What can be said though is that at one point in the season, it seemed a lot less likely than it does now.
