Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- One of the big questions heading into this week is when Logan Gilbert will make his return. He threw 60 pitches in a rehab assignment on Wednesday, and it’s unclear if he’ll make one more before returning to the rotation. If the team decides he’s ready, it’s possible that he starts twice next week: Monday at the Diamondbacks and Sunday vs. the Guardians. Once Gilbert is back with the Mariners, he’s a no-brainer must-start. He has a 2.37 ERA and 2.28 xERA through six starts this season with some of the best strikeout numbers in the game. His ceiling might be a smidge lower in his first few outings back in the rotation, but he’s been too good to keep on the bench.
- Chris Sale is the highest-ranked pitcher tentatively scheduled for multiple starts. After a somewhat shaky start to the year, Sale is back to absolutely dominating. He pitched to a 1.11 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 32.1 innings, and he followed that up with 10 strikeouts across six innings of one-run ball in his first start in June. He’s back to being a must-start, and he’s scheduled for two outstanding matchups vs. the Brewers and Rockies.
- Kris Bubic has flourished as a full-time starter this season, moving into Tier Three in the Pitcher List Rankings. He’s pitched to a sparkling 1.43 ERA across his 12 starts, and he’s provided plenty of strikeouts as well. The matchup vs. the Yankees is a bit scary, but Bubic has earned the benefit of the doubt. He had to deal with lots of traffic on the bases in his first start vs. the Bronx Bombers, but he ultimately came out relatively clean.
- Robbie Ray was one of the tougher pitchers to rank this week. On one hand, he’s been absolutely fantastic of late. He’s pitched to a 1.70 ERA and 1.72 FIP over his past eight starts, and he’s added five wins and 62 strikeouts. That’s good enough to make him one of the best pitchers in fantasy over that time frame. On the other hand, starting in Coors Field and on the road vs. the Dodgers is far from a picnic. You wouldn’t be crazy for benching Ray—especially in Los Angeles—but his production is simply too good to ignore.
Most Likely
- Clarke Schmidt hasn’t been quite as impressive this year as he was in 2024, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky. His xERA is roughly a full run lower than his actual mark, and his strikeout and batted-ball metrics are solid. He’s a prime bounce-back candidate moving forward, and pitching for the Yankees should give him plenty of win opportunities.
- This is an aggressive ranking for Luis L. Ortiz, but it’s hard to beat his projected schedule. It simply doesn’t get much better than a home start vs. the Reds and a road start vs. the Mariners. Ortiz also generates plenty of swings and misses, which is a tough combination to pass up. Ultimately, it’s enough to earn him the “Streamer of the Week” designation.
- Zebby Matthews has struggled to a 5.21 ERA through his first four starts, but there’s been a lot to like with him. For starters, his strikeout rate is over 30%, putting him in the 89th percentile. His xERA is a much more palatable 3.55, so he’s been “unlucky” more than bad. Opposing batters aren’t going to post a .375 BABIP against him forever, and when that changes, he should provide some value. The matchups against Texas and Houston are both above average, with both teams ranking outside the top-20 in wRC+ vs. right-handers. Fire him up wherever you have him.
- Phenom Eury Perez is expected to be activated for next week’s series vs. the Pirates, and if he starts on Monday, it would set him up for a multi-start week. Perez broke out as a 20-year-old rookie back in 2023, and he has the potential to be one of the best starters in baseball before long. He’s closer to the “must-start” tier than “questionable”—especially with excellent matchups on deck vs. the Pirates and Nationals—but the fact that he’ll likely be limited in his return lands him in “probably” territory.
- Jack Leiter is another young pitcher with electric stuff. He’s fared well so far this season, pitching to a 3.48 ERA, and he’s tentatively scheduled for two outstanding matchups vs. the Twins and White Sox. Some of his advanced metrics suggest looming regression, but that’s not really a concern vs. either of those squads.
- MacKenzie Gore has fully broken out in 2025. He was always considered an elite prospect, and he’s delivered a 2.87 ERA with strong peripherals this season. He’s been particularly dominant from a strikeout standpoint, tallying 108 punchouts in just 75.1 innings. That’s good for a 35.5% strikeout rate, which puts him in the 96th percentile. Gore carries just a smidge of risk vs. the Mets, but it’s not enough to actually take him out of the lineup.
- Andrew Abbott is another southpaw who has impressed this season. He has a 2.18 ERA, and he’s done a great job of piling up strikeouts and limiting hard contact. Specifically, he ranks in the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate. The Tigers have fared well against southpaws this season, but it’s not a daunting enough matchup to seriously consider benching him.
- Freddy Peralta has the longest track record in this tier. He’s been a solid fantasy starter for years, but he hasn’t been quite the same pitcher in 2025. His ERA is better than it was last year, but his strikeout numbers are way down. Peralta has also hit a bit of a snag recently, and he’s always prone to the occasional blowup outing. Still, the positives generally outweigh the negatives, and a matchup vs. the Braves isn’t nearly as intimidating as it was before the start of the season.
Questionable
- Most of the guys in this tier have at least one questionable matchup on their ledger, but Shane Baz has two of them. Pitching in Boston and on the road vs. the Mets is a brutal combo, and benching him for either or both outings is defensible. Baz also simply hasn’t been as good as expected this season, pitching to a 4.96 ERA and 4.30 xERA. He still has a prominent spot in the Pitcher List Rankings for the time being, but it’s not unreasonable to wait for better spots or production to get him back into your starting lineup.
- Sawyer Gipson-Long made his season debut Wednesday vs. the White Sox, and things did not go particularly well. Despite the White Sox being an elite matchup, Gipson-Long surrendered three earned runs and failed to make it out of the fourth inning. That’s not the most encouraging sign for his future prospects, but it’s too early to panic. He gets elite extension, and Nick Pollack ranked him as a Tier Eight arm last week. You can certainly consider him at home vs. the Reds, who have historically struggled outside the Great American Ball Park.
- Jeffrey Springs is a pretty unsexy arm, but he had solid results in May: 3.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 22 strikeouts, and two wins. Getting out of the small ballpark in Sacramento should help him—his road ERA is nearly two runs lower than his home mark—and the Angels and Royals have both struggled against southpaws so far this season. He’s a sneaky add.
- Ryan Gusto has a sparkling 0.93 ERA out of the bullpen for the Astros, but that figure balloons up to 5.88 as a starter. However, his underlying metrics in both splits are remarkably similar, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a bit better moving forward. Gusto still isn’t providing much length as a starter, but he’s a viable stream target vs. the lowly White Sox.
- Yusei Kikuchi has been pretty successful so far this season, posting a 3.23 ERA through 13 starts. However, his strikeout numbers are way down compared to last season, while his xERA is closer to five. He’s thrived primarily due to a high strand rate and low HR/FB ratio, so he has the potential to turn into a pumpkin at any moment. You can probably get away with starting him at home vs. the Athletics, but there’s definitely still some risk.
- Griffin Canning continues to shove, and yet, you can’t help but feel like the clock is eventually going to strike midnight on his Cinderella season. He’s coming off another fantastic start vs. the Dodgers, lowering his ERA to 2.90 for the year. Nothing in his profile suggests this production is sustainable, but maybe the Mets have found a magic formula for reviving pitchers. If he can succeed vs. the Dodgers, there’s no reason he can’t do so vs. the Nationals and Rays.
- Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea are both tentatively scheduled for multiple starts next week. Boyd is undoubtedly the better of the two, and he can potentially be used even on the road vs. the Phillies. However, both guys look much more appealing for their matchup vs. the Pirates over the weekend.
- Mitch Keller is about as average as it gets from a pitcher standpoint. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he’s not going to hurt you too much, either. Unfortunately, pitching for the Pirates means wins are going to be few and far between: even Paul Skenes can’t seem to pick up wins at this point. He’s definitely viable vs. the Marlins, but there’s minimal upside vs. the Cubs.
- Merrill Kelly is pretty similar to Keller on paper, but he at least gives you some strikeouts. He also plays for a much better team, and he’s already at six wins for the year. Neither of his matchups stands out as a slam-dunk, but outside of a disastrous outing vs. the Yankees, Kelly has been extremely reliable.
- What do you do with Clayton Kershaw? If his name were Clayton Smith and he didn’t play for the Dodgers, the answer is probably to bench him. He has a 5.17 ERA and a 5.80 xERA through four starts this season. That’s a small sample size, but he also had a 4.50 ERA in seven starts last year. It appears as though Father Time may finally be starting to win this battle, so he provides much more risk than upside vs. the Padres and Giants.
- Nick Pivetta got off to a phenomenal start this season, but he appears to be coming back to reality. He surrendered five runs in his last outing, and as the weather heats up, a few more balls could start flying over the fence for him. Things aren’t going to get any easier against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, so taking him out of your lineup is completely reasonable.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
