Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Only one “Tier One” starter from the Pitcher List Rankings is currently scheduled for two starts: Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was roughed up by the Braves in his last outing, but that stands out as a clear outlier. He still has an elite 2.28 xERA for the year with plenty of strikeouts, and he didn’t allow an earned run in his three prior starts.
- Tier Two is much better represented. Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, Nate Eovaldi, and Chris Sale are all tentatively scheduled for multiple starts, and all four can be started with confidence regardless of the matchup.
- Pablo López is also scheduled for multiple starts for the Twins, and he’s been just a shade worse than Ryan. He’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA with just over a strikeout per inning, so he’s another no-brainer.
- Carlos Rodón is another Tier Three pitcher who has put together consistent results all year. He’s pitched to a 2.60 ERA and 2.83 xERA, while his strikeout rate puts him in the 92nd percentile. The upcoming schedule isn’t ideal, but there’s no reason to take him out of your lineups.
- Freddy Peralta is the lone Tier Four option in this group. While he’s always prone to a blowup from time to time, the good far outweighs the bad. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual from a strikeout standpoint, but the 2.77 ERA will certainly play.
- Drew Rasmussen is the biggest “outlier” in this section. He was not expected to be a dominant starter this season, but that’s exactly what he’s been so far. He owns a 2.33 ERA for the year, and he’s thrown three straight scoreless outings. There’s no need to bench him for matchups against the Rangers or Marlins.
Most Likely
- The Tigers’ rotation has been absolute nails this season. They rank fourth in starter ERA and second in strikeouts, so they’re getting good results almost every time these guys take the bump. That includes Jackson Jobe and Jack Flaherty. Flaherty hit a bit of a speed bump to start May, but he bounced back with a gem in his last outing. He threw six scoreless innings with just two hits and eight strikeouts, and he ranks in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate for the year. Jobe had one blowup start in Coors Field, but he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his other outings. Both guys are absolute slam-dunks vs. the White Sox, and while the matchup vs. the Cubs is difficult, they’re not worth benching in weekly leagues.
- Is there a tougher pitcher to rank than George Kirby at the moment? Kirby has posted an ERA of 3.53 or better in three straight seasons, but he’s made just two starts so far this year. Both have been disasters, giving Kirby an 11.42 ERA and 8.93 xERA for the year. It’s possible that he’s not the same pitcher for the time being, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.
- Lance McCullers Jr. has had the strikeout pitch working in his past two outings. He’s racked up 20 total Ks in 10.1 innings vs. the Mariners and Athletics, which gives him plenty of upside in a week with two strong matchups. There’s some risk, but the ceiling is enough to earn him the “Streamer of the Week” designation.
- Cade Horton entered this season as a top prospect, and he’s lived up to the billing so far. He does rack up strikeouts the same way that most of the top pitching prospects do, but he makes up for it with outstanding control. The Nationals and Tigers are a pretty favorable combo from a scheduling standpoint, making him more appealing than usual.
Questionable
- Tomoyuki Sugano never looks impressive under the hood, but that hasn’t stopped him from getting batters out this season. You can certainly use him in Seattle, which ranks as the No. 1 pitcher’s park in baseball using Statcast Park Factors.
- Bowden Francis is not a particularly good starter, and he’s come crashing back to reality after dominating down the stretch last season. However, he can still provide some value in the right matchups, evidenced by his five scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his last appearance. His first matchup vs. the Phillies doesn’t qualify, but his second one vs. the Twins might.
- Of all the White Sox’s young starters, Shane Smith has been the most impressive. He’s pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 3.67 xERA while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning. Pitching for the White Sox doesn’t come with a lot of win chances, but he has the potential for solid ratios vs. the Royals.
- Michael Lorenzen is the definition of a “meh” pitcher. He has a 4.18 xERA this season and ranks just below average in most Statcast and strikeout metrics. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it could certainly play vs. the White Sox.
- The Athletics currently have two pitchers tentatively scheduled for multiple starts: Luis Severino and Jacob Lopez. Both guys have some appeal vs. the Twins. Severino is the more accomplished of the two starters—giving him a slightly safer floor—but Lopez is arguably the better pitcher. He was absolutely rocked in his last outing, but he was extremely impressive vs. the Phillies in his start prior.
- Tylor Megill has pitched well for most of the year, though he has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. His ERA is up to 5.96 in May, and he’s a clear bench for his first start vs. the Dodgers. He can also be benched vs. the Rockies in Coors, but Colorado’s offense is so bad that they can still be exploited even in the thin Rocky Mountain air.
- Is Dustin May starting to turn the corner? He’s had at least eight strikeouts in three straight starts, so it’s certainly possible. He’s still too risky to trust vs. the Mets, but he’s a viable option against the Cardinals.
- Stephen Kolek might be turning back into a pumpkin. He put himself on the radar with a complete game shutout in Coors Field, but he’s allowed 14 earned runs over his past three outings. Still, the upcoming schedule is good, with games against the Giants in San Francisco and against the Brewers.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
