Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week’s group of two start pitchers features minimal sure things. Fortunately, there are a host of pitchers who should be viable for at least one start. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- One Tier One pitcher in the Pitcher List Rankings is currently expected to toe the rubber twice next week: Paul Skenes. Skenes will have to navigate two subpar road matchups against the Mets and Phillies.
- Moving down a tier, Max Fried and Michael King are just a notch below Skenes. Fried has pitched to a sparkling 1.05 ERA with six wins in eight starts, while King has pitched to a 2.22 ERA with plenty of strikeouts. There’s no need to overthink either of these guys.
- Spencer Schwellenbach is the lone Tier Three starter on this list, and he just barely makes the cut. He hasn’t had the same consistent dominance as the previous four pitchers, but when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anyone. He had a tough showing vs. the Dodgers two starts ago, but he bounced back with a quality performance vs. the Reds in his last outing. You could conceivably consider benching him for his start in Boston, but he’s talented enough to overcome the subpar matchup.
- Cristopher Sánchez and Shane Baz are the “outlier” pitchers in this tier. They’re not true studs, but they’ve delivered stud-like performances pretty consistently this season. Sánchez has pitched to a 2.89 ERA with excellent strikeout and batted-ball data, and he draws winnable matchups against the Cardinals and Pirates. Baz’s surface-level stats aren’t as impressive, but he ranks eighth among qualified starters in Stuff+. His 3.35 xERA is also significantly better than his actual mark, so he’s a prime positive regression candidate moving forward. Perhaps that will start this week, particularly in a strong matchup vs. the Marlins.
Most Likely
- It’s still unclear when Brandon Woodruff will make his return to the majors. He could make one last rehab start on Sunday, or the Brewers could choose to start him Sunday vs. the Rays. However, the most likely outcome is probably Woodruff starting Monday vs. the Guardians on five days’ rest. If that ends up being the case, there’s no reason not to get him in your lineups. He’s pitched well in his rehab assignment, posting a 2.70 ERA while averaging just under a strikeout per inning. Woodruff has a long track record of success at the MLB level, and the matchups vs. the Guardians and Twins are good enough to fire him up right away.
- Michael Wacha is the definition of an innings-eater. Nothing that he does is particularly special on paper; he just simply keeps runs off the scoreboard. He’s pitched to a 2.98 ERA so far this season, and he’s gone at least six innings in three straight starts. He’s usable in both of his projected starts for the upcoming week.
- Tyler Mahle has started to come back to reality just a smidge. Still, he’s yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start this season, and his ERA sits at 1.48 for the year. He didn’t manage a single strikeout in his last outing, but that stands out as a clear outlier. Mahle is an absolute slam dunk at home against the Rockies, and he’s usable against the Astros as well: they’re merely 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season.
- Jack Leiter is also expected to make multiple starts for the Rangers. While his numbers aren’t nearly as good as Mahle’s, he’s probably the better pitcher overall. He certainly has the better stuff, with Leiter ranking seventh in Stuff+ among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season. He benefits from the same matchups, and he can find success in both.
- Colin Rea draws the “Streamer of the Week” designation thanks to a pair of fantastic matchups. It doesn’t get much better than meetings with the Marlins and White Sox in the same week. Rea has also pitched pretty well this season, posting a 2.43 ERA across 29.2 innings. While his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate, he should be able to stave off regression in two cupcake matchups.
- Matthew Liberatore secured a full-time starting job out of spring training this season, and he’s absolutely run with it. He’s pitched to a 3.07 ERA, and his xERA is even better. He thrives on control more than stuff, ranking in the 94th percentile for walk rate with a 108 Location+, but there’s no reason to expect much different moving forward.
Questionable
- Cade Povich is pretty uninspiring. Nothing about his profile jumps off the page, either from a strikeout, Statcast, or pitch modeling perspective. He’s pretty easy to just write off most weeks, but he draws two favorable matchups against the Twins and Nationals. He can theoretically be started for both, with the Twins matchup standing out as particularly juicy. They have the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, and they’re merely 20th in wRC+ in that split as well.
- Ben Lively has posted a 3.46 ERA through his first eight starts, though he’s done it through mostly smoke and mirrors. He doesn’t pile up the strikeouts and allows lots of loud contact, and he’s survived due to a .261 BABIP and 81.7% strand rate. While that’s not the most ringing endorsement, he has some upside against the Brewers. They’re 20th in wRC+ against right-handers, so he can potentially be used in that matchup.
- Jackson Jobe has the potential to be a frontline MLB starter, but he’s not quite there yet. His 4.22 xERA puts him in just the 40th percentile, and he hasn’t had nearly as many strikeouts as fantasy players would’ve hoped. He has the talent to put things together moving forward, but he’s a risky option against the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
- Simeon Woods Richardson is pretty pedestrian, but he’s managed a 4.01 ERA with decent strikeout numbers so far this season. His advanced metrics suggest that production probably isn’t sustainable, but in a week without a ton of slam-dunk two-start streamers, he could provide some value.
- Jeffrey Springs is definitely not viable vs. the Dodgers, but he has some appeal on the road vs. the Giants. Escaping his small home stadium for the spacious confines of Oracle Park is a solid upgrade, and Springs is better than his 4.81 ERA suggests. The Giants are a bit better than expected offensively this season, but they’re merely 19th in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
- As soon as Grant Holmes pulls us back in, he goes out and lays an egg. That’s exactly what he did in his last outing, allowing four earned runs in just 5.1 innings vs. the Reds. When Holmes is on his game, he’s capable of providing value in most matchups. When he’s not, he can turn into a pumpkin. He carries plenty of risk in Boston, but he can hopefully start the week on a high note vs. the Nationals.
- David Peterson has strong numbers to start the year, pitching to a 3.05 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. Unfortunately, his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive. He’s not startable against a Yankees’ offense that can occasionally turn their home stadium into a home run derby, but the matchup against the Pirates is excellent. They’re 27th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they also boast the fifth-worst strikeout rate.
- Merrill Kelly is not someone who makes the cut very often, but a matchup against the Rockies outside of Coors Field will make anyone look appealing. His first start of the week isn’t terrible either, though the Giants have been better against right-handers than they have against lefties.
- Speaking of San Francisco, Justin Verlander is tentatively slated for two home starts. His numbers have been much better at home than on the road—3.45 FIP, 8.89 K/9—and he still has the stuff to get guys out at 42 years old. He ranks 16th in Stuff+ among qualified starters, so he’s a potential buy-low candidate.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
