Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 68 pitches.
I had a tough time wrangling Tyler Mahle’s ranking in my daily SP Streamer Rankings article. He was coming off a rehab start on a limited pitch count without major signs of success, and even against the Marlins, it was unlikely for him to do a whole lot on one night.
And that was kinda true, but it was enough to make it generally worthwhile and get you thinking about adding him for the final week of the season: 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 68 pitches (ND). Remember, this was the Marlins.
Mahle will get the Twins next in a start that will likely be capped around 75/80 pitches. The hope is five frames of decency, with his four-seamer doing its best to hit 92 mph (91.6 mph here) and stick in the upper third of the zone. The splitter was effective for 4/21 whiffs and made for a good-but-not-great #2 pitch, while his cutter was featured just four times and played with the dog instead of enjoying the party.
If you’re putting on a rally cap for your final week of the fantasy season, I think the ceiling is too low for Mahle to be the target in standard leagues. There has to be another stream instead to give you a better Win chance or push the needle further. That said, if you’re just looking for something that doesn’t come with a lava floor, Mahle could fit the bill.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.
YOU. CAN’T. STOP. HIM. Just start him. You don’t need me, just plug and play.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 67 pitches.
Aces gonna make us sad. Woo was cruising per usual, earning a King Cole, until he was warming up for the sixth and pulled the trainer out. There was some relief knowing it was “pectoral tightness” and nothing to do with his arm, but this is likely means he’s done for the season and his post-season status remains up in the air. Thanks for giving us 186.2 innings, Woo. We didn’t expect more than 125.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) vs TOR (W) – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 113 pitches.
Uhhhh, yeah. Enjoy the Gold Star, Lorenzen. I guess this makes him a Werewolf? Looks like he’ll get one more start @LAA, and this start doesn’t change anything. It’s a low chance for a QS and Win and if you have to chase it, may your BABIPs be low, and your strikeouts high.
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Has Elder suddenly become a “League Winner” across the last month? Yes, that includes his disaster last time out, which has been nullified yet another glorious performance. Maybe I should have weighed those 17 whiffs last time out a bit more… No! It’s the children who are wrong. It still disturbs me internally that Elder is having such remarkable outings, but he’s playing it smart with four-seamers saved for LHB in the upper third, while the sinker has become this incredibly tough pitch to deal with, all of a sudden. Just 6 BIP vs. 23 CSW + Fouls is not quite right, to say the least. And it’s not like his slider was elite, too. It allowed a trio of hits with just 4/28 whiffs. What a world. Welp, it’s the Nationals next. You’re not stopping now, are you?
Janson Junk (MIA) @ TEX (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
We had a wild night with guys like Lorenzen and Elder returning 7+ frames of 1 ER ball, and the JunkBaller had to get in on the fun. Both his slider and sweeper found the zone over 60% of the time across their 42% combined usage and was punished for just one hit. I could say “Thanks Texas!” and call it a day, but I need to give credit to Janson for getting his breakers over the plate (even went 5/6 strikes with the curve with 4/6 in the zone, too!), while the four-seamer returned a 35% CSW with few mistakes, too. Is it enough credit to start him against the Phillies? Sadly, it’s not. But maybe it’s timed perfectly for the Phillies to sit their starters after clinching… Probably not.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
THE SUN IS SHINING. No, this isn’t about Springs, this is about Sonny appearing, even if it came with getting Singled Out. One more to go, and you’re not sitting him against the Giants. I’m kinda shocked to see Gray hold a horrific 4.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and I wonder if that will lower his ADP for next year. I’m down if people think he’s just a HIPSTER.
Will Warren (NYY) @ BAL (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
He keeps finding a way and I’m proud of him for it. I dig that he leaned into the curve for LHB, though he didn’t quite get it high enough, leading to three hits across his other offerings after they spat on the hook for a 42% strike rate. He’ll get one more against the Orioles and I guess we go for it at this point.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
Atta boy Sevy. Not the prettiest, but 1 ER with a dub is excellent. Please don’t let this get to your head for a start against Houston in Sacré Verde. That doesn’t bode well.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs SEA (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I was afraid of his dipping velocity and I’m stoked he sat 96.1 mph. Phew. The command, well, that’s a different story, but his sinker was fantastic to LHB with 6/16 whiffs as it messed batters up fading away off the outside edge, thinking it was the four-seamer. One more in Sacré Verde. Don’t let us down. Nick, there’s no way you roster Hunter anywhere after your unfavorable ranking in the preseason. THE ROYAL US.
Parker Messick (CLE) @ MIN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 94 pitches.
Atta boy Parker, even if I thought you were going on Saturday instead of Friday. The changeup was everything you wanted it to be at 41% CSW, setting up everything else in the arsenal. It’s a tough call with the Tigers next, but that slowball feel certainly makes me lean toward letting him fly. And who knows, maybe the Tigers are resting their starters after clinching? Clinching what? They may lose the division. Oh dear.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.
It’s a Dusty Donut as you contemplate if the ERA is worth the WHIP, given the lack of dub and a HAISTBMBWT?! At least it wasn’t horrific like the haircut I had in college. He’s still experimenting with his secondaries and has yet to find the pitch, while the heater wasn’t sitting upstairs as well as prior nights. The Dodgers are the final stop for Nelson on Wednesday and I don’t think you want to go for that.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs SFG (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
It was the final home game for he man once known as TATIAGA and for fantasy managers, it wasn’t the breathtaking outing we were hoping for. He’ll have one final start in Seattle, a sip of the @TEA before whatever comes in the playoffs (will he be on the roster?! He shouldn’t be, right?) and I’m not too optimistic here.
Pablo López (MIN) vs CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 61 pitches.
No. No no no no. PabLó was removed due to forearm soreness as we await the results of MRI imaging. LIFE IS PAIN. I’d be absolutely shocked if it’s fully clean and they elect to let him make his final start. No need to chance this, just let him rest.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 59 pitches.
It was the day of Taijuan Walker Buehler and Taijuan did his part while Walker Buehler cleaned up for a Win: 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 60 pitches (W). Sneaky, sneaky. I’m not sure how the Phillies handle their rotation this week, but the reason for the piggy-back was to set up Sánchez for the game 1 start of the NLDS…which is a week later due to the Wild Card series. No, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, I dunno. At the very least, we’ll likely see Taijuan and Buehler start separate games in the last week – they shouldn’t be in the Phillies rotation in October. Taijuan would get the Marlins (decent Win chance) and Buehler will get the Twins (also decent but I still question him heavily). If you’re in dire need of Wins, go ahead and stream them. I don’t think you’ll get a massive 6+ ER blowup from either.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) @ STL (L) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.
Blegh. Now the Brewers are likely moving Jay Mis to relief with the division all but locked up. It makes sense for Milwaukee – rest this kid as much as possible! – and I’m not against moving on from him for another arm this week. These are the kind of things that make the final week of the fantasy baseball season absolute chaos. Throw everything you know out the window and aim for the bushes.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs BOS (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
Ah yes, another truncated start of boredom from Ras. Not that this was a great showcase by Rasmussen that would have been cured by a longer leash, but I sincerely hope Rasmussen routinely throws 85-90 pitches next year. He could be a 180+ IP ratio stud. After all, with one more start, he’ll be above 150 innings this season and currently holds a 2.80 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The inconsistency has been rough for H2H leagues, but a darling for roto. It’s rare to find that gap between leagues. ANYWAY, he heads to Baltimore for his final outing and given that he’s able to flirt with 80 pitches now, I’m actually fine starting him there. It’s not in Tampa and against a mid offense. Just locate the sinker better to prevent so many foul balls, alright?
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s a PQS, sure, but the dude is dope and makes us feel dope. What a season.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
I haven’t been the biggest fan of Martin and a PQS with four strikeouts doesn’t really do a whole lot to rid him of 15-teamer Toby land, but a dub among it? Yeah, that’s cool. It’s so borderline each start and it has me feeling indifferent about him constantly. I think if the cutter became more of a focus and foundation, then I’d be more interested. For now, it was 21% usage with 5/16 whiffs and I’m wondering why he used it so rarely to RHB. It’s a legit pitch Martin, LEAN INTO IT. He just did well, though. Sure. But it can be better.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
Oh those solo shots. The bane of Imanaga since… forever? Yes, even as a toddler, he stared at a single small glass filled with liquid and could feel its evil name association. And don’t get me started with that LMFAO song. Yes, IM AN AGA will be fine against the Cardinals in Wrigley next time out. Just did a mini-dive on Imanaga’s dip in strikeouts this year to find it rooted in his four-seamer’s ghastly drop in putaway rate from 17% to 10%. More flyballs on the pitch, harder flyball EV, higher launch angle, higher HR rate, etc. It’s still an elite pitch, though, and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. My gut says the putaway rate will normalize close to 17% next season, and thus increasing his strikeout rate along the way. 10% is simply too dang low.
Dylan Cease (SDP) @ CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
Sigh. How many of y’all refuse to draft Cease next year? Do you refuse to start him against the Brewers up next? He was one two-run shot away from a strong outing here, but that isn’t fair. Or maybe it is, I don’t know. At the very least, his slider was far from its best self – 2/21 whiffs is unheard of from Cease – while the four-seamer was as dominant as ever. So close.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs ATH (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 74 pitches.
Two longballs were the difference as the Athletics were highly efficient at converting their runners on base. Nothing impressive here from Keller as he plodded along with poor sweeper and changeup locations, but the fastballs were able to find the edges enough to get through the outing outside of Kurtz and Butler sending pitches over the fence. Y’all know this guy isn’t for me.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 94 pitches.
A Gallows Pole for Lodolo, but he was Singled Out and allowed two longballs against an elite offense. Sigh. Nine of fourteen balls in play went for hits (including both HRs), and Lodolo really didn’t deserve that. You’ve been saying that for weeks. Because the dang schedule! And now he gets the Pirates. HIS TIME HAS COME.
Brandon Sproat (NYM) vs WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 71 pitches.
Womp womp. As expected, Sproat adapted against the LHB-heavy lineup to focus on more of his pitches and while the curve and sinker were solid, he ran into trouble in the third where all four runs came in, The sweeper showed up just six times to RHB (two whiffs, four balls) and the sinker was…meh. It really wasn’t a pretty outing and you can easily drop him with a his final outing lined up for a date in Wrigley. That ain’t it.
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) @ NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Can’t say I’m too shocked this didn’t work out, but I was hoping his slim chance of slider/curve dominance would pierce through the Mets’ thump. Both breakers weren’t landing as well as we’ve seen, nor was the four-seamer teasing the top of the zone well enough to produce a worthy strike rate (A 43% clip. Blegh.) to get through five frames. There’s a chance for something decent against Atlanta up next, though that’s only reserve for desperate NL-Only formats.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
We were all afraid of this one and simply put, Robbie didn’t have his slider. The changeup was actually helpful to RHB when it showed up, but the southpaw needs his signature breaker to meld with his four-seamer. It allowed the Dodgers to go fastball hunting and they launched a trio, returning all five runs and a whole lot of tears from fantasy managers. At least he gets to host the Cardinals next and yes, that’s well worth your time.
Bradley Blalock (COL) vs LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Bradley looked at his feet as he walked off the mound and saw something sparkling. What’s this? A WIN?! He looked around to see who could have dropped it, but everyone else was gone. Blalock stood is disbelief, holding the giant dub in his hand, and slowly shifted his expression from confusion to satisfaction. A Win. All for myself. It was a good day for Bradley.
Mitch Farris (LAA) @ COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
The slothball earned six whiffs but just 50% strikes, making his four-seamer and slider pick up far too much of the slack in Coors. It did not go well. Please reconsider spinning the Farris wheel.
Charlie Morton (DET) vs ATL (L) – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Oh jeez. It’s been, what, a month since we’ve seen a great Morton start? Exactly a month. August 20th. Wow. At least Detroit had a few weeks of a serviceable SP, eh? Props to Chris Paddack for cleaning up after with 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 68 pitches (ND), sporting the sole blemish of a two-shot in his final frame. Great changeups and dotted heaters to LHB + sinkers inside and a decent cutter to RHB… outside of that sinker to Kim. You almost had it, Paddack. I do wonder if he’ll take Morton’s spot for the next matchup against the Guardians after a game like this. Morton is just not doing it.
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ KCR (L) – 0.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 45 pitches.
I can’t believe I wrote “He has rarely hurt you all season” for his ranking in the daily streamer article. I mean, he hasn’t. RIGHT?! But he just had to get bamboozled for a pair of HRs (3-run and 2-run) in the first frame and let us all down when we need him the most. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. Sure. I guess. Whatever. I’m still starting him against the Red Sox in Toronto. This was one poor inning. It happens. HE DIDN’T EVEN PITCH THAT BADLY. He even got squeezed on a 3-2 pitch, and why not, a broken-bat flare single, too. Of course both of his outs came from strikeouts, Koufax made it clear that on Kershaw’s final day at the Dodgers, Scherzer was going to get ignored. It was that kind of game. Don’t rage drop.
Game of the Day
Kyle Harrison vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I’m super curious if this will pan out. I just want him to be dope.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
