Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ SEA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
It feels as though we can’t quite have it all with Zebby Matthews. Last outing gave us strikeouts but little volume, this time we got a full seven frames that included 4 ER before recording his second out: 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches. It was a frustrating pair of hits + a poor 92 mph cutter to Raleigh for a three-run shot, then a 98 mph 1-2 heater up and out of the zone that landed over the fence from Arozarena before Zebby pulled up his sleeves and dominated for 6.2 frames.
I watched all of it and it’s hard not to become enamored. Congrats on the Golden Goal, fella, it was deserved. The slider isn’t as aggressive as other breakers out there, but he kept the pitch down and it befuddled batters endlessly for 9/29 whiffs while the four-seamer and cutter combined for 72% strikes and churned outs easily. 96/97 heaters with good shape + a cutter for strikes + a legit slider on an arm who works at-bats? How can you not love that?
The biggest worry I have is the sustainability of whiffability. He can see a little too hittable at times with the slider relying more on location than movement + the four-seamer failing to overpower upstairs as much as you’d like to see. There’s a change and curve worked in at times that can help, but I don’t see a 30% strike potential arm, more of a 23-25% as he hopes to keep the hits-per-nine under a round 9.0.
That works for me, even with the Shag Rug present. Now that he’s at 94 pitches (and trusted to finish seven frames!), you have to believe he’s firm in this rotation indefinitely. I don’t love a date in Sacré Verde next and worry a little about said hittability, but this is a Holly in the making.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
Ayyyyy, we cool. He worked with changeups, sweepers, sinkers, and cutters here and executed his gameplan well. Yes, I’m rolling with his @TEA next.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Wow. This is an ace-like line and despite how many people will tell me “He’s just a great pitcher! He knows how to pitch!” I’m still waiting for someone to direct me to what he actually does with his arsenal that speaks to those statements. Everyone else in the league who performs well has it represented in their arsenal, so why not Abbott? I watched all of this one and yes, Koufax was very much present, of course. Abbott wasn’t living on the edges with his curve, sweeper, or changeup, but they returned eight outs on nine balls in play, while the four-seamer was solid upstairs and mixed effectively. I’m shocked he didn’t get demolished by LHB and escaped some damage against RHB, but this isn’t to say he pitched poorly. Nay, he pitched well. Just not this well. The good news? Despite all my skepticism, Abbott is a clear play moving forward with MIL, @CLE, MIN, @STL on the horizon. Enjoy.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) @ HOU (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
To be honest, this was a whole lot of “Here, hit this” to the RHB-heavy Astros and Koufax jumped out of his seat and made it happen. I’d like to thank Houston for their innate +1″ of vert on four-seamers, too. Definitely made this one a little easier for Pepiot at 20″ of vert. I’ll take efficient Pepiot with an overall 66% strike rate all day over the 5-6 frames of “Come on, stop wasting secondaries.”
José Soriano (LAA) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 96 pitches.
That WHIP with four walks is a whole love of debris to brush off this Dusty Donut and I’m happy Koufax could help Soriano navigate six shutout without RHB to get jammed by sinkers (he did it once to Arias for a first pitch out, then struck him out later). It’s too tough of a schedule ahead for me to go after this with his clear PEAS status (A bit of the Spider-Man pointing meme vs. Ortiz) as he’ll get @BOS, ATH, @NYY up next.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Fastballs were dope, sliders and changeups were meh. He was able to spin the slider on the outside edge, but too far away often, and the changeup was filthy at times (three strikeouts!) but still returned well under 60% strikes. We all see the ace inside and this line is still fantastic based on his elite four-seamer and effective sinker. Is this enough pitchability to believe he won’t be erratic across the next few weeks? I think I’m in given the Rays, Twins, White Sox, and Pirates up next.
Kyle Harrison (SFG) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Yeah, he’s dope. Sure, the three walks aren’t fun and due to the curve and change failing to return respectable strike rates, but they were down. Not stupid chaos, but low and tempting. Meanwhile, the four-seamer is still a ridiculous 1.9 HAVAA offering living in the upper half above 95 mph. Now he’s at 80 pitches and you’d think he’d be able to earn more strikes in the future with his secondaries while maintaining his four-seamer’s ability. Suitman whispers in my ear. Oh come on, Verlander could return next week and kick out Harrison? BUT THIS IS WHERE HE SHOULD BE. You know, if Birdsong is rough this weekend, I wouldn’t be shocked if they favored Harrison instead. Or maybe just give Verlander one more week on the IL to make sure he’s fine. I understand if you don’t want to pick up Harrison until we know more, but I see a more reliable arm than Roupp and Birdsong rooted in the best fastball of the bunch. I can’t believe Harrison has come so far. These are unprecedented times.
DL Hall (MIL) @ PHI (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 44 pitches.
I gave DL a Hall Pass for this one given his relief appearance earlier in the week and this being the Phillies and I have some wonderful news. Who here remembers what the main issues were when he got a chance to start last season? His HAVAA declined, his fastball declined, and he couldn’t earn strikes? Bingo! Now he’s back to 94/95 mph with 1.4 HAVAA and seven feet of extension and…questionable secondaries. But the heater! Over forty-four pitches. Very fair. And the Brewers rotation is kinda full. And it’s sub 50 pitches. And it would be a tough schedule if he was actually in the rotation. FINE. We hold off for now.
Jared Shuster (CHW) @ BAL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 19 pitches.
Shuster opened for Sean Burke, who seemingly loves to avoid the top of the lineup after returning 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24.4% CSW, 90 pitches. He’s back to 95 mph on the four-seamer, though I’m still iffy on the secondaries. The slider, curve, and now changeup were all unreliable and has us holding a sidekick audition for future outings. I’m still waiting for that one start where it all comes together before I say “Okay great, now do it again.” Soooo we’re like two or three starts removed at best? Something like that
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs TBR (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 83 pitches.
Here’s some stats for ya. Framber held a 4.39 ERA, 1.27 WHIP across his first seven starts + a 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP across his last four…not including this one. Framber, you’re so good at making people forget how much you annoy them.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) vs LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.
The slider was hit-or-miss (often literally) and his sinker was the sole reliable strike offering, returning 13/29 called strikes over the plate. His pitchability is still not at the level where we can expect him to take down a hitter and execute a gameplan, though the upside is obviously there for the nights when it comes together. Still a PEAS, sadly.
David Peterson (NYM) vs COL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
We’re happy, but a Philly is somewhat deflating against the lovely Rockie Road treat. Blame the changeup for being kinda whack if you like, I still dug the general BSB attack against RHB. We keep rolling, of course.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) @ ATL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
Cora pulled Giolito with Matt Olson coming up with no one on and two outs in the fifth. Seriously?! Yep. Giolito labored for 28 pitches in the first, settled in, and it’s dumb. ANYWAY, he can still improve his slider and get more out of his changeup, while the four-seamer velocity took a nosedive to 92.2 mph. Nooooo. Yeah, not fun. However, it was worse in the second inning and recovered to 93 mph by the end, so maybe not be so worried? I see him as a low-end Holly and let’s leave it at that. Enjoy the Angels next.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 81 pitches.
Atta boy Pivetta. Thanks for doing exactly what you should against the Pirates. And no HRs! What a wonderful thing. I think you should start considering your “sell high” campaign with the Giants up next, followed by the Sneks + Dodgers as we enter the hot summer months in San Diego. His HR problem will return.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Whoa, this worked? I guess I gotta grant the Gold Star over here then. Just 40% strikes on the splitter with a ton of hittable sinkers and cutters, but sure. Congrats…?
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs MIN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna have a quiet night with a pair of solo shots he wants back. We’re all good here.
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ NYM (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
Look at you, returning a co-share of the Gallows Pole. Sadly, that’s the only positive thing here save for those who benefit from a PQS. Even when it’s good, it’s not.
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 78 pitches.
A PQS with a HAISTBMBWT?! is a perfect example of Keller inducing eye-rolls everywhere. Did you realize he’s down to 92 mph on his sinker?
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs BOS (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
The slider is still filthy and I’m still in here. Curves + cutters are a good approach for LHB while the slider was a regular stay in every at-bat, and the real issue was a 22% CSW on the four-seamer. You know, the pitch we don’t want to wind up in play. I was also a little annoyed at all the foul balls off the cutter, but I think y’all understand the value in Holmes. So close to closing the sixth before allowing his third run (an 0-2 four-seamer?! WHY?!), which would have gotten everyone flocking to the wire, checking if REB and his 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1.00 WHIP, and 10 Ks were still able to grab in your leagues.
Casey Mize (DET) @ KCR (ND) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 79 pitches.
Awwww. I’m disappointed in this one in a good matchup with Mize once again failing to eclipse 94 mph. This was the curve and splitter getting laced, which is expected of his #3 pitch, but not the splitter, which still looked solid and isn’t in question. He’ll get the White Sox next and I’d take this version of Mize against that lineup. Hopefully above 94 mph, though.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Blegh. This was mostly a terrible second frame and normal Libertore after. The fastball is still good, the slider and changeup missed bats, we’re cool.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ugh. Come on Kelly, the Nationals! It was a three-run jack. Okay fine. It’s not the easiest schedule ahead but he’s worthwhile. Still a solid low-end Holly.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
You’re still here. Abel and Painer are right there. RIGHT THERE. Phillies, I beg of you. But we’re paying him money and these are innings. YOU LOST THE GAME.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs DET (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 69 pitches.
I didn’t expect a long one from Lugo in this Still ILL game + the Tigers n all = leave him on the IL and we start him regularly moving forward. It’s that easy, y’all.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
I got a text from my friend and I quote: “Gonsolin pitches to Judge and it’s Gonzolin.” He did what he could to get through six and I don’t like trusting him for the Mets nor 2x Padres after.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
No, the Bassitt Hounds are not Back-serville. The curve isn’t dominating and he’s too dang hittable. Try other things. Like pottery? Oh. Yeah, that’s not a bad idea.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs CIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
A trio of longballs as Koufax didn’t help along the way. Sigh. No, the Reds Carpet is still unfurled for all to grace, Rea just isn’t that great of a starter. It doesn’t mean that he can’t take advantage of the Nationals up next, but it also means you don’t have to hold onto him for it. He’ll get the Phillies next, after all. And then the Pirates! AND THEN THE MARINERS. Okay, okay.
Max Fried (NYY) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 75 pitches.
Aces gonna make us all sad. It’s the Dodgers and there was regression coming at some point, but yeah, this ain’t fun. Whatareyagonnado.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
The Sneks are tough and it was a gamble even if I thought Irvin was in a rhythm prior. This was too many heaters over the plate (at least at 92/93!) and that’s your ball game. Easy pass with the Cubs next.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ TOR (L) – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.
No sunshine and rainbows for Springs in this one. Because it was a dome, Nick. Nailed it. Nothing worked outside the slowball and I’m surprised he threw it just 18% of the time. He’s a desperate stream against the Brewers.
Game of the Day
Robbie Ray vs. Edward Cabrera – Ray is dope and makes us feel dope. Cabrera looks like a new man and just needs to show repeatability at this point.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
