One of the most important parts of identifying prospects to choose in your FYPD is by mapping out when the players will debut. If you are in win-now mode, a more advanced player who can help you sooner might be more valuable. But if you are in the middle of a rebuild, you can take a chance on a player who needs more development.
The 2025 draft class is particularly interesting due to the high number of prep players selected in the top 20. In recent years, MLB organizations have tended to fast-track prospects through the system, but that approach is usually reserved for more advanced college players. This year’s class lacked top-tier college talent, which is likely to result in a broader range of MLB debuts and varied development timelines for these prospects.
Predicting ETA’s for Top 10 Draftees
Eli Willits, Washington Nationals
ETA: Opening Day 2029
Willits will be a fascinating case study due to the many factors in his development. His strengths are his bat-to-ball skills, defense, and baseball IQ, which are typically safe skills to translate to moving quickly through the MiLB. But those traits come with a couple of caveats.
The first and most important is Willits’ age. A reclassified prospect from the 2026 class, he will not be turning 18 until this December. Even as the number 1 overall pick, the odds of him debuting before turning 20 are slim, which already pushes his debut to Opening Day of 2028. Combine his age with the necessary physical development, and Willits could still debut at 21 years old, but be a “slower” mover. The Nationals seem to be going through a major reset, and Willits will be the face of the future. Opening Day of 2029 feels like a great time for the new regime to build a relevant contender with Willits making his long-awaited debut.
Tyler Bremner, Los Angeles Angels
ETA: Opening Day 2027
If Bremner doesn’t make the roster until Opening Day 2027, he will join Sam Bachman as the only Angels 1st round pick to not debut in their first full season since 2020. The Angels are in a league of their own when it comes to rushing prospects to the major league level, and it shows in the prospects that they draft.
Similar to Willits, Bremner is a prototypical “safe” profile. A mid-90s arm with above-average command, a plus change-up, and an above-average slider is a safe bet to move fast through the ranks. There isn’t much development needed with Bremner; the main concern is if the stuff is good enough to be a high-level big league starter. With the Angels’ track record, it would be a shock not to see Bremner in the rotation at the beginning of the 2027 season.
Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners
ETA: Mid Season 2026
On draft day, many felt Anderson could help an MLB team during the 2025 season. As the Mariners continue to make a push for the playoffs, it is impossible not to think about how he could potentially help them down the stretch. Considering the options in their starting rotation, it is more likely to be in the bullpen, but it seems like the Mariners are not interested in rushing their prized prospect.
Anderson pitched a career high 119 Innings during LSU’s National Championship run, and that workload is enough to ease him into toeing the rubber again. The Mariners’ bullpen ranks in the top 10 in the league, and Anderson won’t make or break their chances at winning the World Series. But the org could choose to spend the offseason shopping their starting pitchers, to fill the void of offensive production. A trade of one of their starters would open up the door for Anderson to debut early in 2026. Similar to Chase Burns with the Reds, he could start next season in the MiLB, then debut before the All-Star break.
Ethan Holliday, Colorado Rockies
ETA: Opening Day 2029
Ethan faces the unfortunate reality of being constantly compared to his brother, Jackson, at every stage of his development. On draft day, MLB analyst Harold Reynolds even remarked that he believes Ethan was the more advanced prospect on his draft day than Jackson was on his, a view that contrasts with the broader industry consensus. Still, it underscores how Ethan’s growth will always be measured against his brother’s path.
Jackson made his MLB debut with the Orioles in just his second full professional season at age 20. It would be a major surprise if Ethan progressed at a similar pace. Not only are the Rockies unlikely to be in contention, but Ethan still needs to prove he can consistently hit high-level pitching. Last summer, he struggled against elite prep arms, and he’ll need to show that offseason improvements have helped him adjust to professional competition.
That said, Ethan may ultimately have the higher ceiling. If everything comes together, particularly his impressive raw power, and with the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field, he has the potential to compete for home run titles and become the next great Rockies slugger. Opening Day of 2029 would be the earliest I expect to see Ethan, unless something massive changes in his development or the Rockies’ contention window.
Liam Doyle, St. Louis Cardinals
ETA: Opening Day 2027
The stuff is ready. Similar to Anderson, Doyle has the stuff capable of pitching in the Major Leagues right now. Unlike Anderson, it is less refined, which means that if the Cardinals want him to be a starter, it will take time.
Doyle is a max-effort thrower, which makes him susceptible to command issues and fatigue. He generates a ton of swings and misses, as evidenced by his 164 strikeouts in 95.2 IP, but he really hit a wall at the end of the season. In his last 5 outings, he gave up 16 ER in 21 IP. In the MLB, you can’t hit a wall at 95 Innings.
His head coach at Tennessee, Tony Vitello, mentioned his physical improvements during the Fall of 2024 on MLB Network’s draft coverage, and that shows there is most likely still room for improvement. If he can continue to improve his endurance, he will have a chance to be a starter at the MLB level. The main issue will be holding back what could be a top reliever in the sport. If he sticks in the rotation, I imagine Opening Day 2027 will be the earliest we see him.
Seth Hernandez, Pittsburgh Pirates
ETA: Opening Day 2029
For Hernandez, I looked at the developmental trajectory of the current Pirates’ top prospect, Bubba Chandler. Hernandez is more refined than Chandler was on draft day, but the Pirates have shown no hurry to push him to the big leagues. I imagine they will do the same with Hernandez.
Hernandez is an advanced prep arm with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and 3 above-average offspeed pitches. His Change-up is one of the best in the whole class, and he flashes athleticism on the mound that should translate to consistent strike-throwing ability. The main obstacle for Hernandez is history. Prep arms run into the most hiccups through development, whether it be developmental struggles or injuries. History tells us not to get too excited about any prep arms, no matter how talented or refined they are.
Aiva Arquette, Miami Marlins
ETA: Mid Season 2026
Arquette was the safest college position player in this class, which made him a hot commodity in the top 10. None of the tools are elite, but he does a lot of things really well. His continued defensive development convinced evaluators that he would stick at SS in professional baseball, and he continued to tap into more power.
Arquette’s bat-to-ball focused approach will fit well with the Marlins’ developmental team. Considering their struggles offensively at SS in recent years, Arquette could be the dynamic talent they have needed. That will motivate the org to move Arquette fast through the system.
JoJo Parker, Toronto Blue Jays
ETA: Mid Season 2027
Parker is one of my favorite bats from the draft class. Standing at 6 feet 2, 200 lbs, he is more physically developed than Eli Willits, and considering he just turned 19 on August 8th, he should be. The profile is similar in that it is a bat-to-ball, line drive-focused approach, but he flashes more power with less speed than Willits.
Parker flashes a plus hit tool, which will allow him to succeed relatively quickly in pro ball. Assuming he continues to grow into more power, he has the potential to be a consistent 20+ home run player, who sticks up the middle. He compares similarly to former Mariners top prospect, Cole Young, and could see a similar quick trajectory.
Steele Hall, Cincinnati Reds
ETA: Mid Season 2029
The demographic that seemingly gets overrated the most in the draft process is prospects who are speed-first prospects. Evaluators always imagine the potential impact, but the reality is you can’t steal 1st base. I am not necessarily saying that will be Hall, but when I am projecting development, it is a factor.
Hall has flashed an average hit tool with below-average power. Those grades do not mean all hope is lost. Standing at 6 feet, 180 lbs, he really needs to develop physically first. That may decrease some of his speed, but he will improve offensively. Physical development will take time, which means he could be one of the last prospects in the top 10 to debut.
Billy Carlson, Chicago White Sox
ETA: Opening Day 2029
Carlson is the best athlete on the field in every baseball game he plays. Not only does he play elite infield defence, but he also flashes upper 90s on the mound. His defense and his arm are currently his calling card, but there is a ton of potential for that athleticism to translate into the box.
As of right now, I think Carlson will take time. I think his level of athleticism has been a disadvantage to him mechanically. There is a lot of forward movement and moving parts in his swing. When facing high-level pitching, that movement can really hurt a young hitter. He has gotten away with it because of the athlete he is, but that will need to take time to clean up, and will probably come with some trials and tribulations.
Notable Potential Fast Movers
Ike Irish, Baltimore Orioles
ETA: Mid Season 2026
There were several evaluators who thought Irish was the best bet in the class. Giving the best offensive developmental org, the most talented hitter in the class is a great match. While Irish is listed as a Catcher, he will not be catching in pro ball, so I am not worried about Rutschman and Basallo blocking him next season. With the trade deadline moves the Orioles made, there is an opportunity for an outfielder to step in.
Andrew Fischer, Milwaukee Brewers
ETA: Opening Day 2026
I wrote about my affinity for Fischer in a prospect breakdown here. He has continued to get better each and every year, and will have an opportunity to push the MLB roster as soon as next season. The Brewers could use a power bat at 1B, and Fischer may be the best option. The question is more around his developmental trend continuing into professional baseball.
Gage Wood, Philadelphia Phillies
ETA: Postseason 2025
This is most likely not going to happen, but it could. Wood led the nation in Fastball whiff%, while pitching in the SEC, showing the pitch is a legit weapon at the MLB level today. Combine that with a slider that generated a 40% whiff rate, and you have 2 pitches that could be in an MLB bullpen today. The Phillies could use some more bullpen depth, even after acquiring Jhoan Duran, and Wood has the stuff and command to do it. It is unlikely because of the injuries he has dealt with, and the Phillies will want to ensure Wood gets the chance to be a starting pitcher.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
