After a disappointing 2024 season, Trevor Rogers has excelled through ten starts in 2025, posting a 1.44 ERA/2.57 FIP in 62.1 innings.
After battling injury, poor results, and even a trade from Miami to Baltimore, Rogers’s eventual success has long been questioned. Still, at just 27 years old, Rogers has plenty of time to prove his breakout 2021 season to be a sign of future success.
After using four-seam/changeup/slider in his early career, Rogers has since added a true sinker and lofty sweeper, giving him five distinct shapes to counteract his lower velocity. Still, his greatest strength continues to be in his changeup, giving him an elite offering against righties while his two breaking balls work against lefties.
As Rogers does not blow anyone away with velocity, his success derives from command, particularly of his two primary offerings.
Rogers throws both pitches in-zone often while complementing each other location-wise, with his four-seam gravitating towards the upper half of the plate and his changeup the lower half. As his four-seam and changeup have a ~14-inch gap in induced vertical break, their centralized locations in-zone share a similar distance.
This consistency allows his other secondaries to vary a bit more location-wise and still yield solid results, leading to a few starts in particular where Rogers was in complete control:
- 6/23/25 vs. Texas Rangers – 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – 34.0 O-Sw%, 71.3 Str% – When Rogers can execute his changeup below the zone and four-seam in-zone, hitters will chase and induce weak contact, even if whiff rates are not ideal.
- 7/26/25 vs. Colorado Rockies – 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – 34.0 CSW% on four-seam, sinker/sweeper 71.4/66.7 Str% – Even with his changeup/slider lacking results, his sinker and sweeper got enough strikes to let his four-seam dominate against a weak offense.
- 8/1/25 @ Chicago Cubs – 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – 37.5 CSW% overall, 64.8 Zone% – Facing a strong offense, Rogers pounded the zone with four-seam/changup vs. righties and four-seam/slider/sweeper against lefties, getting great results against both.
Despite appearing in just 10 starts, Rogers has made it clear he is capable of dominating against a variety of lineups. Still, it’s worth taking note of some glaring signs of regression, especially when compared to his breakout 2021 season.
As a result of his velocity dropping a couple of ticks, Rogers has been hit harder this year than in the past. This, along with some other good luck, would suggest his run prevention is taking a step back from his 1.44 ERA through 10 starts. Still, his luck-based stats compare similarly to his 2021 breakout, suggesting his command could play a part as well.
Long-term, I would continue to project Rogers as an above-average starter, despite some blowup start risk. His command is an important part of his success, and injuries continuing to play a part in his career could put this in question. For now, however, Rogers has proven he can pitch well with lower velocity and continue to be a blessing for an Orioles team in desperate need of good pitching.
