Here you can find the best pitchers at getting batters out after week nine, and even which specific pitches result in the most outs.
This is a tool we can use to determine pitchers to target in fantasy baseball, when we look at Out% along with other stats like whiff%, putaway%, and advanced ERA metrics like PLV.
Check out our app to help track Out%: https://pl-out-percentage.streamlit.app/
You can read more of the intricacies of the stat here, where I reflect on what we learned from Out% last season and how to use it in fantasy.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus more on how to use this stat for fantasy baseball and how it can help you make fantasy-relevant decisions in-season.
Here is where the league-average Out% stands on each type of pitch as of writing on Friday, May 2 (they will fluctuate as the season goes on):
- Fastball – 16.3%
- Cutter – 16.9%
- Sinker – 17.8%
- Splitter – 20.7%
- Slider – 18.4%
- Sweeper – 18.4%
- Curveball – 16.9%
- Changeup – 19.7%
A few notable pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch, including
- Max Fried – Fastball 22.4%
- Dean Kremer – Cutter 22.6%
- Luis Severino – Sinker 23.8%
- Zack Wheeler – Splitter 29.3%
- David Peterson – Slider 28.5%
- Corbin Burnes – Curveball 24%
- Garrett Crochet – Sweeper 32.2%
- Nick Lodolo – Changeup 27.6%
For the sake of this article, my analysis will primarily focus on starting pitchers. Currently, the leaderboards (especially fastball and fastball adjacent pitches like cutters) are dominated by relievers because of their small sample size.
Fastball Out% Highlight
Joe Ryan – SP MIN
Max Fried owns the league’s best fastball Out Rate at 22.4%, but Joe Ryan’s 21.5% fastball Out Rate ranks as a close second. Ryan’s fastball is arguably his best pitch overall and is a major reason for his 2.57 ERA on the season.
Ryan tosses his fastball 56% of the time, likely because of how reliable it has been. It ranks just below a Quality Pitch according to PLV, but it is still extremely effective.
The biggest knock against his fastball is that it has below-average velocity. But Ryan makes up for that in other ways. He gets elite break, while also using his extension and approach angle to deceive batters. He also locates his fastballs extremely well, which has led to some ridiculous numbers.
Ryan’s fastball has a .168 BAA, a 28% whiff rate, a 32% strikeout rate, and a 26% putaway rate—all top-15 among pitchers who have thrown a fastball in at least 50 plate appearances.
Overall, Ryan’s surface stats look great—his K/9 and BB/9 have improved from last season and he has an 85% LOB rate. The problems are underneath the surface, though. That LOB rate is 10% higher than his career norm, and likely will come back down to earth. He also has a lower-than-usual BABIP, and a HR/FB rate slightly below league average. In terms of Out Rate, Ryan has just one other pitch that ranks above league average in his curveball:
While it is important for pitchers to be able to have a fastball that can get batters out, rather than just be a set-up pitch, pitchers need more than just that. His breaking pitches, like his slider and sweeper, have high whiff rates, but Ryan is due for some regression. This is a great time to sell Ryan while his value is high.
Out% Pitchers To Buy
Jake Irvin – SP WAS
Jake Irvin might not be a sexy name, but he has some pretty solid numbers this season. Despite low strikeout totals, he has improved his walk rate for the third straight year and has a career-best 3.93 ERA. And although he does not induce many Ks, he has been excellent at inducing outs:
Most importantly, Irvin has an above-average fastball Out%, but he also owns three other pitches with above-average Out Rates, and one that is .1% below league average. This goes to show he does not need to rely on strikeouts to get outs.
While Irvin’s changeup has been most effective at inducing outs, his curveball has arguably been his best pitch. It owns a .210 BAA, a 23% whiff rate, and an 18% putaway rate. His PLV data supports how effective this pitch has been:
While the velocity is lower than league average, he makes up for it in other ways, like elite extension and induced vertical break. He also locates it well, which makes it an above-average pitch according to PLV. Here is a look at his curveball in action:
Jake Irvin, Nasty 76mph Curveball. 😨
7th K pic.twitter.com/DgKEOW1ASU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2025
Understanding Irvin’s Out Rate legitimizes his success this season and helps to explain why he has been able to go 5-1 so far, with six quality starts. This is a pitcher to acquire in deep leagues.
Spencer Schwellenbach – SP ATL
Spencer Schwellenbach was one of my favorite offseason targets. He became a hot name as draft season closed in, and has proven why so many were interested in him in fantasy baseball.
Schwellenback has been incredibly effective at limiting walks and homers, while also stranding runners 72% of the time, and posting a 47% GB rate. That high GB% comes thanks to four pitches with launch angles in the single digits, including his sinker’s -4 degree LA. Out% helps explain why that pitch, which has an 11% whiff rate and a 3% K rate, still can have a high Out%. Clearly, he has been getting a ton of groundouts thanks to that pitch.
On top of that, Schwellenbach owns four pitches with above-average Out Rates, including his splitter, sinker, slider, and fastball:
His splitter and slider combination, in particular, has been great. They have identical Out Rates, and similar numbers in other facets as well. His splitter has a .143 BAA, a 36% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. His slider has a .215 BAA, a 32% whiff rate, and a 20% putaway rate. I mean, imagine trying to hit this:
Spencer Schwellenbach, Vicious 88mph Slider. 😤
And is Fired Up. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Tbbw1eEuDz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2025
Many factors make this slider top-notch, including above-average velocity, elite extension, and its movement.
Schwellenbach has a shot at being an elite starter this season, and his PLV, Out%, and Statcast data all back it up. He may be a buy-high type of player, but should be worth it.
Out% Pitchers to Sell
David Peterson – SP NYM
David Peterson has been off to a great start this season, with a 4-2 record, six quality starts, and a 2.69 ERA. While this looks promising, the underlying data, including Out%, suggests regression is on its way.
Peterson has just one pitch that ranks above league average—his slider—though it is the seventh-best out pitch in baseball at the moment:
Peterson has some major problems. His fastball Out Rate is among the worst in the league, and is the 79th worst out pitch in baseball (1,020 different pitches have been thrown). It has been hit quite a bit, with a .304 BAA. It also has a 4.74 PLV grade, below league average. In fact, only his curveball grades above league average according to PLV.
Peterson’s changeup has a .176 BAA, but a low whiff%, putaway%, and Out%, suggesting a sequencing or location issue for Peterson. His plvLoc+ score on his changeup is 93, which is below average. All of his pitches rank below average in plvLoc+ except his curveball.
Peterson’s saving grace this season has been a 57% GB rate, but his BABIP and HR/FB rate are below career and league averages, respectively, suggesting regression is coming. Plus, his xFIP and SIERA are both nearly a run higher than his ERA.
This would be a great time to jump ship if you roster Peterson. His value may not get any higher.
Griffin Canning – SP NYM
Griffin Canning makes for another relative sell-high candidate. In 11 starts, he is 5-2, but with just two quality starts, and only two pitches above league average in Out Rate:
Canning’s sinker has been good according to Out%, but he has thrown his sinker just eight times this season, so that Out Rate is slightly distorted. His changeup has been his best out pitch, and grades above average according to PLV, but that is not enough to suggest he can keep up his performance this season.
Canning uses his fastball, changeup, and slider combination nearly 93% of the time, and while his fastball has a low BAA, it has not been effective as an out pitch, nor has his slider. He has issues locating both his fastball and slider, but his fastball has been most problematic. And that makes it difficult to feel good about future success for Canning. Here is a look at his fastball PLV to corroborate the low Out%:
It has below-average velo, extension, and location, and not much else to make up for it. This leads to a PLV grade well below average and helps to explain why it has not been effective at inducing outs.
Regression is on its way for Canning, who has the worst BB/9 of his career and an unusually high LOB% on a middle-of-the-pack defensive team.
Canning’s 3.23 ERA looks spectacular, but Out% and other underlying stats support his 3.84 xFIP and 4.18 ERA. Get what you can get now from a team looking for pitching depth in deep leagues.
More Out% Pitchers to Buy
- MacKenzie Gore
- Bailey Ober
- Tanner Bibee
- Merrill Kelly
- Casey Mize
- Matthew Liberatore
- Jose Berrios
- Nick Lodolo
- Taj Bradley
- Drew Rasmussen
- Nick Martinez
- Jameson Taillon
More Out% Pitchers To Sell
- Dean Kremer
- Sonny Gray
- Jesus Luzardo
- Kodai Senga
- Kevin Gausman
- Cristopher Sanchez
- Ryan Pepiot
- Matthew Boyd
- Tylor Megill
