We are at a point in the season where the league average Out% for each pitch has mostly stabilized. They still may fluctuate, but not very much. Now it becomes much easier to measure a pitcher’s performance based on Out%.
It is an essential tool in analyzing the effectiveness of a pitcher for fantasy baseball purposes. And as both the real-life and fantasy trade deadlines approach, this is something fantasy managers should take into consideration.
For first-time readers, Out% basically measures how good a pitcher is at getting outs with particular pitches. As you continue reading, you’ll get some tips on how to analyze Out%, how you can use it to determine who the best pitchers are at inducing outs, what to look for, and how to make decisions based on Out%.
You can use Out Rate to identify pitchers to buy and sell in fantasy baseball, especially when analyzing it alongside other stats like whiff%, putaway%, advanced ERA metrics, and PLV data.
Check out our app to help track Out%: https://pl-out-percentage.streamlit.app/ – here you can search by pitcher and see leaderboards by pitch type.
You can read more of the intricacies of the stat here, where I reflect on what we learned from Out% last season and how to use it in fantasy, as well as the real-life implications.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus more on how to use this stat for fantasy baseball and how it can help you make fantasy-relevant decisions in-season.
Here is where the league-average Out% stands on each type of pitch as of writing on Saturday, July 26 (they will fluctuate as the season goes on):
- Fastball – 16.4%
- Cutter – 16.4%
- Sinker – 17.8%
- Splitter – 21.2%
- Slider – 18.5%
- Sweeper – 18.3%
- Curveball – 16.8%
- Changeup – 19.4%
A few notable pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch, including
- Tarik Skubal – Fastball 21%
- Chris Bassitt, Seth Lugo – Cutter 21.5%
- Randy Vasquez – Sinker 22.9%
- Logan Gilbert – Splitter 29%
- David Peterson – Slider 26.8%
- Noah Cameron – Curveball 22.8%
- Garrett Crochet – Sweeper 34.8%
- Ranger Suarez – Changeup 26.3%
For the sake of this article, my analysis will primarily focus on starting pitchers. Currently, the leaderboards (especially fastball and fastball adjacent pitches like cutters) are dominated by relievers because of their small sample size.
Fastball Out% Highlight
Eury Pérez – SP MIA
Eury Pérez has pitched well since returning from injury. He owns a 3.23 ERA, with a 9.2 K/9 rate and a 3 BB/9 rate. Fantasy managers should expect some regression to his HR/9 and HR/FB rates, which should cause a spike in ERA, but he should be able to mitigate it with some solid stuff, including an elite fastball.
Perez tosses his fastball over 50% of the time. His other most-used pitches are a slider and curveball, of which his curveball also ranks as above league average in Out%.
I would like to see him develop his slider a bit more, considering how much he uses it. That would give him three solid out pitches. His sweeper, sinker, and changeup are pitches he barely uses, so seeing low Out Rates for those pitches is not worrying. Still, he has an extremely effective fastball Out%, which gives him an advantage. Many pitchers use fastballs as setup pitches, but batters have to be ready for Perez’s in two-strike counts because it is so good.
Take a look at his PLV data:
This is a borderline Quality Pitch according to PLV. He has some absurd velocity, which makes up for the below-average extension. He also gets a ton of vert and horizontal break, which helps to deceive batters, especially considering how fast it moves. A touch better extension and location could make this pitch even better.
Perez has also clearly been coached to pound the zone. He has a 50% zone rate, up from 47% in 2023. That has also resulted in a higher whiff rate of 32% as he gets batters to miss outside of the zone with breaking balls like his curve.
Perez is a pitcher to buy in fantasy, despite not having a third out pitch right now, and despite some likely mild regression.
Out% Pitchers To Buy
Janson Junk – P MIA
Janson Junk has been given the reins as a starter after working as a reliever for the Marlins. And as a starter, he has excelled. Half of his six starts have resulted in quality starts, and he has a 4-2 record for Miami on the season. Much of his success comes thanks to all five of his pitches owning Out Rates above league average:
Junk distributes his pitches well, not relying on any one pitch a significant amount of the time. His ability to sequence his pitches well makes him a legit threat on the mound since he can get batters out with literally any pitch. Surprisingly, Junk has a low 6 K/9 rate considering how frequently he induces outs. His most hit pitches, his changeup and curveball, both have BAAs above .300. However, those are his least used pitches and both induce groundballs over 60% of the time, resulting in single-digit launch angles. If Miami’s defense could help him a bit more, those BAAs would decrease, but their defense is middle of the pack and has left Junk with a 64% LOB rate.
On a positive note, his most used pitches—his fastball, slider, and sweeper—all have BAAs of .264 or better. Junk’s sweeper is by far his best pitch overall. It has a .156 BAA, a 23% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. PLV loves his sweeper too:
Junk does not throw his sweeper hard, but he gets some vertical and horizontal break on the ball and locates the ball extremely well, which has led to its Quality Pitch grade. In fact, he walks fewer than one batter per nine innings (which is insane) because his location is so elite.
Janson Junk tossed a gem against the Orioles.
7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
The most impressive aspect of Junk's game is his elite command. Just 4 BB in 50.1 IP this season. pic.twitter.com/a9Xkk6xMpR
— Jeremiah Geiger (@JeremiahGeiger2) July 12, 2025
His slider also grades as a Quality Pitch according to PLV, and all but his changeup grade at least as league average. Junk owns a 3.09 ERA on the season so far, but is likely to see some regression as his home run rate and BABIP increase. Despite that, he has the stuff to mitigate that regression somewhat. This makes Junk a great under-the-radar target in fantasy leagues who could put up elite stuff down the stretch.
Noah Cameron – SP TEX
The rookie, Noah Cameron, has been pitching like an ace for the Royals this season. He has posted a 2.61 ERA, an 85% LOB rate, and a 45% GB rate. While his 7.7 K/9 rate is a bit below average, his 2.6 BB/9 rate is impressive for a rookie. Another impressive feat is Cameron having four of five pitches with Out Rates above league average:
Much like Junk, Cameron distributes the ball well, which makes him much harder to hit against and keeps batters guessing. He also has out pitches for lefty hitters (slider) and for righties (changeup). His fastball also grades above average, an important asset for successful pitchers.
Cameron has been aggressive in the zone, which does not always work for pitchers. It has helped him, though, because of his elite breaking stuff and being able to make batters miss on pitches outside of the zone. All of his pitches, aside from his cutter, have BAAs of .230 or better. And all of his pitches, aside from his fastball, have whiff rates between 27-37%.
Arguably, Cameron’s best pitch is his curveball, which has a .145 BAA, a 31% whiff rate, a 26% putaway rate, and a 43% K rate. Those rank sixth, 30th, 10th, and 12th among the 51 pitchers who have thrown a curveball at least 200 times and in at least 50 PAs.
PLV likes Cameron’s curve thanks to its above-average velocity and elite horizontal break. He throws it with elite location as well, something he also does with his spectacular slider.
Cameron has a low .225 BABIP, and a high LOB%, but plays in front of a top-10 defense according to fielding percentage. He also limits hard contact and line drives well, which could sustain a suppressed BABIP. All of this, combined with top-notch stuff, could also lead to a high LOB%, so I do not necessarily buy the 3.84 xFIP or 4.01 SIERA. I think he lands closer to his 3.49 PLA by the end of the season, and perhaps even keeps his ERA under 3.00. We are watching an ace in the making, and he should be a target in every fantasy format and league size.
Out% Pitchers to Sell
Taijuan Walker – P PHI
Taijuan Walker has been promoted to the rotation from the bullpen, and although his 3.84 ERA looks promising on the surface, he is a pitcher fantasy managers should stay away from.
Walker has posted his best K/9 and BB/9 rates since 2022, while also improving his GB rate from last year. The trouble for Walker is that his K/9 and BB/9 rates are below league average, and his stuff does not look good enough to lead him to better results.
For starters, Walker features six pitches, but only one – his slider – has an Out Rate above league average.
If he were throwing his slider 50% of the time as his primary pitch, that would not be so bad. But he uses about the same as four other pitches, all of which are below league average at getting batters out. Essentially, he has only one reliable out pitch, which is problematic. Batters can simply sit on the slider and wait for his fastball, curveball, or splitter to hit.
And that is exactly what has happened. Those three pitches have .280, .357, and .276 BAAs. Additionally, Walker’s slider and curveball are his only pitches with whiff rates over 20%, while his cutter and slider are his only pitches with putaway rates over 20%.
Even though his slider has been successful at getting batters out, that may not last as he faces more hitters and is exposed to them multiple times a game. It has worked for him so far, but PLV paints a different picture of his slider:
It comes in slow, with very low extension, not enough break, and below average location. Walker’s best pitch looking this bad under the hood is not a good sign going forward.
Because of these issues, Walker should be avoided, traded, or dropped in fantasy leagues before we see his ERA spike closer to his 4.99 PLA or his 4.39 SIERA and xFIP.
Gavin Williams – SP CLE
Gavin Williams has had quite the breakout year, striking out just under nine batters per nine innings. His 80% LOB rate and 42% GB rate also both look good, but he has been plagued by walks and has one pitch that grades above league average according to Out%.
Williams has a few pitches that are borderline decent out pitches, but there are some significant issues here.
First, Williams tosses his fastball more than any other pitch by far, but it is ineffective as an out pitch. Among the 55 pitchers who have thrown a fastball at least 500 times in 150 PAs this season, Williams’ .279 fastball BAA and 15% putaway rate each rank 14th worst. Because batters do not have to factor in his fastball as a danger in out counts, they can key in on other pitches. It also could be that this is a sequencing issue for Williams. He may be using his fastball as a waste pitch or to set up other pitches, and batters are simply catching on and either hitting it or making contact with other pitches.
Another significant issue for Williams is poor location. Only his cutter has a plvLoc+ above league average. His 92 Location+ is well below average, ranking second worst among quality starters. This has led to a 4.8 BB/9 rate, something he has gotten away with so far.
The last major issue for Williams is his unsustainably high LOB% and a low BABIP. Cleveland owns the second-lowest fielding percentage in baseball, which suggests that his LOB% is going to regress, especially if he continues walking batters at such a high rate. This will also be a problem if he continues to post below-average Out Rates. If he cannot get batters out, walks a bunch of guys, and the defense does not help him, Williams will regress.
This is the time to jump off the ship, before his 3.51 ERA climbs closer to his 4.30 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA, or 4.91 PLA.
More Out% Pitchers to Buy
- Nick Martinez
- Eric Lauer
- Chris Bassitt
- Dean Kremer
- Sonny Gray
- Bailey Falter
- Ryan Pepiot
- Stephen Kolek
- Miles Mikolas
- Zach Eflin
- Matthew Liberatore
- Merrill Kelly
- Shota Imanaga
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Randy Vasquez
- Tanner Bibee
- Zack Littell
- Mitch Keller
- Matthew Boyd
- Trevor Rogers
- Nick Lodolo
- Brandon Woodruff
- Michael McGreevy
- Jack Leiter
- Andrew Abbott
- Max Scherzer
More Out% Pitchers To Sell
- David Peterson
- Taijuan Walker
- Patrick Corbin
- Jose Soriano
- Cade Horton
- Casey Mize
- Sean Manaea
- Kevin Gausman
