If you are looking to step up your fantasy baseball analysis, and want to get better at analyzing pitcher performance, then read about Out% below. This will tell you who the best pitchers are at inducing outs, what to look for, and how to make decisions based on Out%.
Out% or Out Rate is a tool we can use to determine pitchers to target in fantasy baseball, especially when analyzing Out% alongside other stats like whiff%, putaway%, advanced ERA metrics, and PLV data.
Check out our app to help track Out%: https://pl-out-percentage.streamlit.app/
You can read more of the intricacies of the stat here, where I reflect on what we learned from Out% last season and how to use it in fantasy, as well as the real life implications.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus more on how to use this stat for fantasy baseball and how it can help you make fantasy-relevant decisions in-season.
Here is where the league-average Out% stands on each type of pitch as of writing on Friday, May 2 (they will fluctuate as the season goes on):
- Fastball – 16.4%
- Cutter – 16.1%
- Sinker – 17.6%
- Splitter – 20.9%
- Slider – 18.2%
- Sweeper – 18.4%
- Curveball – 16.2%
- Changeup – 19.5%
A few notable pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch, including
- Max Fried – Fastball 21.2%
- Dean Kremer – Cutter 22.7%
- Bryan Woo – Sinker 24.2%
- Logan Gilbert – Splitter 27.7%
- David Peterson – Slider 27.6%
- Chase Dollander – Curveball 22%
- Sonny Gray – Sweeper 28.7%
- Ranger Suarez – Changeup 26.6%
For the sake of this article, my analysis will primarily focus on starting pitchers. Currently, the leaderboards (especially fastball and fastball adjacent pitches like cutters) are dominated by relievers because of their small sample size.
Fastball Out% Highlight
Andrew Abbott – SP CIN
Andrew Abbott is having a career year this season. He has a 1.79 ERA to go along with a 7-1 record and five quality starts, including three quality starts in his last four games. A major reason Abbott has performed so well is a very good fastball. He also features some excellent breaking and offspeed stuff:
Abbott was a high-strikeout pitcher in the minors and flashed the swing-and-miss stuff in 2023, his debut season. He regressed in that department in 2024, but has bounced back this season, posting an 8.6 K/9 rate. He also has managed to reduce his walk rate to 2.3 BB/9. Abbott should see some regression to his low BABIP and HR/FB rates, as well as a sky-high 85% LOB rate, but the improvements to his strikeouts and walks should mitigate the regression.
Additionally, Abbott’s ability to get batters out in multiple ways should keep him from regressing too far. Abbott has changed his pitch distribution a bit from last season, tossing his changeup more and sweeper less, while also turning his slider into a cutter that he barely uses:
Overwhelmingly, though, Abbott’s most used pitches—his fastball, changeup, and curveball are his best at getting batters out. If you dig a little deeper, you may notice Abbott’s chase rate increased 6% from last season up to 31%, while he has maintained an aggressive 51% zone rate. What this means is that Abbott has made some smart choices about how to attack the zone with his fastball (101 plvLoc+), while also knowing when to drop his curveball (108 plvLoc+) outside of the zone to induce swings and misses.
Abbott’s ability to mingle those secondary pitches with his fastball has turned him into a major fantasy asset. In doing so, his fastball has become one of the best in the league at getting batters out. This is backed up by its .189 batting average against, 20% whiff and putaway rates, and 26% K rate.
Abbott probably won’t maintain a sub-2 ERA for the rest of the season, but he has enough data to suggest that he should be trusted in fantasy.
Out% Pitchers To Buy
Grant Holmes – SP ATL
Grant Holmes has been a great add recently for fantasy managers. He tossed a 15-strikeout quality start against Colorado after striking out nine Brewers in his previous appearance. While he has been flashing some excellent strikeout stuff, Holmes has dealt with some issues. He has been a bit unlucky with home runs and has walked four batters per nine innings. These are things he will need to get under control if he is to continue to see success as a starter.
The good thing for Holmes is that he has an excellent baseline of pitches to get batters out. He features a slider that he tosses 35% of the time – the same as his fastball – and its 24% Out Rate is well above league average. Holmes’ cutter and curveball also rank above league average in Out%:
Usually, we want to target pitchers with a high fastball Out Rate, but since his cutter (a fastball-adjacent pitch) works so well, we can look past it. Having those three options to get batters out makes him a pitcher fantasy managers should add wherever he is available.
Holmes’ slider in particular is absurd. It has a .138 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 37% K rate, a 44% GB rate, and a 27% putaway rate. He locates it well, with a 104 plvLoc+, which has been a key to its success against opposing hitters. He has used it overwhelmingly against righty hitters to induce swings and misses like this one:
Grant Holmes, Nasty 85mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/oC4b1uh9kB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2025
Holmes has used his curveball and cutter against lefty batters very effectively, a sign that his good performances could be sustainable.
With weapons like these, it is no surprise he owns a 10.2 K/9 rate and a 47% GB rate. But he will have to get the walks under control to mitigate the regression as his inflated 81% LOB rate comes back down to earth.
His positive regression to walks and homers should balance out the negative regression to BABIP and LOB%, making it look like a mid-3 ERA is sustainable.
Nick Pivetta – SP SD
Nick Pivetta was due for some regression, which came in a few tough starts recently. He gave up 13 earned runs across 14.2 IP against the Royals, Dodgers, and Giants. Now he owns a 3.64 ERA, which looks like it should be sustainable for the rest of the season, especially when factoring in his Out%.
Even with the three recent ugly outings, the season as a whole has been solid for Pivetta. He has a 9.7 K/9 rate and a 7-2 record with eight quality starts. Plus, he has done well at limiting walks and homers, and has been effective at keeping baserunners from scoring. He has done this with five incredibly effective out pitches, including a fastball, slider, sinker, cutter, and curveball:
It is worth noting that the only pitch below league average in Out% is his sweeper, which he uses 16% of the time. This means that the other 84% are pitches that have a higher-than-average chance of getting batters out:
Pivetta’s most effective out pitches are his sinker and slider, though he uses them infrequently. He should be tossing them more, especially his slider. One this we know about Out% is that if you have an elite breaking ball, you should be tossing it more often because it will result in outs more often. PLV grades his slider as a near quality pitch thanks to some top-notch location, extension, and break:
Pivetta’s best, most used pitch, though his curveball:
This pitch has some crazy drop, which he pairs with borderline elite extension and above-average location. It grades out as an above-average pitch according to PLV. Just imagine trying to hit this:
Nick Pivetta, Pretty 78mph Curveball. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/gcYUJ9gHmY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2025
Pivetta can get batters out extremely well in several different ways. He clearly sequences his pitches well, using the right pitch at the right time more often than not. Do not let the recent outings discourage you from trying to acquire him. If anything, it might lower his cost slightly. Out Rate, PLV, and Statcast all show that Pivetta is legit.
Out% Pitchers to Sell
Clarke Schmidt – SP NYY
Clarke Schmidt has earned seven quality starts in 11 appearances this season, while posting a 2.84 ERA. On the surface, this looks like someone you want in fantasy baseball. Despite that, Schmidt is a risky option and looks to be due for some regression.
As far as Out Rate, Schmidt features a sweeper and knuckle curve that rank above league average. They make up about 52% of his pitch usage. His four other offerings, though, are mostly well below league average:
Notably, Schmidt’s fastball Out% is terrible, which would not necessarily matter if he had a cutter or sinker that worked well. Those pitches both are not effective at getting batters out either, a major problem for sustaining long-term success.
This is backed up by Schmidt’s PLV and PLA scores, showing some flaws in his game:
His PLV grades on all but his sweeper and curveball are below league average, lining up with Out% data. And Schmidt’s 4.18 PLA is just under a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA.
Once his sample size grows, Schmidt should start to see some regression to his BABIP and HR/FB rates, which are extremely low. He also has induced an uncharacteristically low GB%, which is problematic. And if he does not improve the quality of his non-breaking pitches, batters will start to sit on them and wait for the others. I would not want to stick around for that, and would be looking to sell him while his value is at its peak…right now.
Jeffrey Springs – SP ATH
Jeffrey Springs has been a hot add of late in fantasy leagues as he posted seven quality starts in his last nine appearances, dating back to May 1. Despite this string of success, he has shown why he is a risky fantasy starter throughout this season, and his Out Rates back up this notion.
Springs’ changeup ranks among the 10 best changeups in Out%, with a 24.8% Out Rate. It is his second-most-used pitch behind his fastball, and is a pitch he relies on heavily against righty batters.
The issue for Springs is that it is his only pitch that ranks above league average in Out Rate. This means that of his five pitches, his only reliable out pitch is his changeup. That is extra concerning because his changeup, fastball, and slider make up all but about 4% of his pitch usage, yet his fastball and slider are ineffective at getting outs:
Pitchers need to have more than one out pitch, or batters will simply wait for them to throw something hittable – in this case, any of Springs’ pitches other than his changeup. Springs has a 51% zone rate, meaning his stuff is landing in the zone just over half of the time. He also has a 28% chase rate because his stuff is not good enough at the moment to fool batters when he does throw outside of the zone. Springs’ 83% contact rate ranks as the second worst of his career, because hitters have essentially decided to avoid the changeup and wait for him to throw something in the zone – likely cutters and fastballs.
It is just a matter of time before he has another rough outing that balloons his ERA. Any fantasy managers that added Springs as a streamer and decided to hang on, or fantasy managers rostering him in deep leagues, should not feel conflicted dropping him right now.
More Out% Pitchers to Buy
- Drew Rasmussen
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Bailey Falter
- Jameson Taillon
- Sonny Gray
- Andrew Heaney
- Michael Wacha
- Davis Martin
- David Peterson
- Matthew Liberatore
- Andrew Abbott
- Mitch Keller
- Dustin May
- Chris Bassitt
- Zack Littell
- Casey Mize
More Out% Pitchers To Sell
- Stephen Kolek
- Matthew Boyd
- Quinn Priester
- Bryce Elder
- Landen Roupp
- Dean Kremer
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
