Curious about which pitchers are the best at getting outs? Want to know how that can impact your fantasy baseball team? Take a look below at our Out% weekly review.
Out% or Out Rate is a tool we can use to determine pitchers to target in fantasy baseball, especially when analyzing Out% alongside other stats like whiff%, putaway%, advanced ERA metrics, and PLV data.
Check out our app to help track Out%: https://pl-out-percentage.streamlit.app/
You can read more of the intricacies of the stat here, where I reflect on what we learned from Out% last season and how to use it in fantasy.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus more on how to use this stat for fantasy baseball and how it can help you make fantasy-relevant decisions in-season.
Here is where the league-average Out% stands on each type of pitch as of writing on Friday, May 2 (they will fluctuate as the season goes on):
- Fastball – 16.3%
- Cutter – 16.9%
- Sinker – 17.8%
- Splitter – 20.9%
- Slider – 18.3%
- Sweeper – 18.2%
- Curveball – 16.8%
- Changeup – 19.9%
A few notable pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch, including
- Max Fried – Fastball 22.5%
- Dean Kremer – Cutter 22.6%
- Luis Severino – Sinker 24.3%
- Zack Wheeler – Splitter 28.7%
- David Peterson – Slider 28.5%
- Max Fried – Curveball 20.9%
- Garrett Crochet – Sweeper 32.2%
- Nick Lodolo – Changeup 27.6%
For the sake of this article, my analysis will primarily focus on starting pitchers. Currently, the leaderboards (especially fastball and fastball adjacent pitches like cutters) are dominated by relievers because of their small sample size.
Fastball Out% Highlight
Tyler Anderson – SP LAA
Tyler Anderson has an elite fastball when it comes to getting batters out. It has a 20.1% Out Rate, ranking seventh best among pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of fastballs. This is great for Anderson, who tosses his fastball a whopping 45.9% of the time among his six-pitch arsenal. The trouble for Anderson is that none of his other offerings are effective out pitches:
Despite not having much else to get batters out, a good fastball is a starting point and has helped to keep him afloat with a 3.86 ERA. But what about his fastball has been so good?
Despite his fastball’s below average velocity and extension, Anderson gets some ridiculous induced vertical break. His 19.6 inches of iVB ranks third most among pitchers who have thrown at least 250 fastballs. He basically uses deception, as well as above average location, to fool batters into poor contact.
Unfortunately, for Anderson, this does not look like enough to stave off regression. His changeup has induced a 41% whiff rate, and he has a promising slider, but those pitches simply have not led to outs at an effective enough rate.
Anderson has a low K/9 rate, a high BB/9 rate, a low BABIP, and a low GB%, all of which, along with the poor Out% data, suggests massive regression is on the way. Those are reasons why he owns a 5.19 xFIP and 4.89 SIERA.
Out% Pitchers To Buy
Drew Rasmussen – SP TB
Drew Rasmussen throws his fastball, sinker, and cutter a combined 94% of the time. All three of those pitches rank as above league average in Out Rate.
Those three pitches have been absolutely filthy for Rasmussen this season, and not just according to Out%. They all have batting averages against of .205 or better. His fastball and cutter have 22% and 25% whiff rates, respectively. And his fastball and sinker have 22% and 23% putaway rates, as well as 28% and 22% strikeout rates, respectively.
Here he is getting strikeouts with his fastball (first and second Ks) and his cutter, which looks like a tight slider:
Drew Rasmussen, K'ing the Side in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/kqN7rIzXcJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 4, 2025
Rasmussen has missed significant time the last two seasons, and Tampa is likely to be conservative with his innings. This means his value may lie more in fantasy leagues that count wins instead of quality starts. He is an arm to target in non-QS leagues.
Davis Martin – SP CWS
Davis Martin features four pitches with Out Rates above league average. His two worst pitches, according to Out%—his slider and curveball—are only used a combined 7% of the time. Though his wins will be limited pitching for the White Sox, Martin is someone to target in fantasy baseball, particularly in leagues that count quality starts.
Martin’s changeup, cutter, sinker, and fastball all rank above league average at getting batters out:
Martin’s fastball and changeup combination has been his bread and butter this year, with his changeup posting an impressive 23% Out Rate. Martin’s fastball is a legit weapon, with a .150 BAA, a 22% K rate, and a 20% whiff rate. His changeup has a .210 BAA, a -1 degree launch angle, and a 19% whiff rate.
His changeup has been a major key to his success, especially inducing a 66% GB rate, leading to an overall 47% GB rate. Martin’s changeup has above-average velocity, and he locates it well, plus it has 33 inches of vertical drop, and it grades out as a near-quality pitch according to PLV:
Martin has a disappointingly low 5.3 K/9 rate after posting an 8 K/9 rate or better at every minor league level. He had better strikeout rates last season and in 2023. With his stuff, he should induce more strikeouts as the season continues. And if he can keep limiting walks, we are looking at a breakout for Martin in 2025.
Out% Pitchers to Sell
Yusei Kikuchi – SP LAA
On the surface, Yusei Kikuchi looks like he has an elite pitch mix according to Out%. His sinker and sweeper Out Rates are sky high at 35% and 33% respectively. But digging in, the data reflects a pitcher on his way to some regression.
It would be one thing if his sinker and sweeper were two of his most-used pitches, but they actually combine for just over 4% usage rates. In fact, all four of his pitches that have Out Rates above league average make up about 33% of his pitch usage:
This means Kikuchi’s two most-used pitches—his fastball and slider—have below-average out rates, and he is throwing them two-thirds of the time. That is problematic, especially considering the importance of having a high fastball Out%. These issues suggest that sustained success will be difficult for Kikuchi.
Some other issues point towards regression for Kikuchi, including his K/9 and BB/9 rates worsening from last season. He also has a HR/9 rate below his career norm and a HR/FB rate slightly below league average. His LOB% is also significantly higher than usual, which could mean more runs will come around if regression to his norm comes there too.
All of this explains why his 3.23 ERA does not line up with his 4.76 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA. Kikuchi is a sell candidate, and fantasy managers should get off this train now.
Sonny Gray – SP STL
This pains me to say, because Sonny Gray is one of my favorite pitchers, but it may be time to trade him in your fantasy leagues.
While his advanced ERA metrics show that he could be performing better, they seem to be missing a few issues plaguing Gray this season. Most of these are fixable issues, so if he starts to turn it around, do not be surprised.
Gray has improved his walk rate from last season to 1.8 BB/9, but his K/9 rate is down a whole strikeout to 9.9 (still very good). He also has seen a decrease in GB%, and an increase in his barrel%, HardHit%, and LD%. What ties all of these changes together is an increase in his Zone%, or how often he is throwing balls in the zone. It is up to a career high 52%, and the result has been an increased contact rate and his highest zone contact rate since 2016.
Another major issue for Gray is that he has only two pitches with an Out% above league average—his sinker and sweeper. His sweeper, in particular, is elite, but he does not have much else to get batters out effectively, especially lefty hitters:
Gray has thrown his curveball as his primary out pitch to lefty batters, but it simply has not been good enough as an out pitch. It has a nice 32% whiff rate, but the 28% K rate could be much higher if, perhaps, he sequenced it more effectively or threw it outside of the zone more.
As mentioned, these are some correctable issues. He could throw outside of the zone more, which might increase his walk rate, but doing so (while also sequencing and locating well) could improve his Out% and make him a better pitcher overall.
More Out% Pitchers to Buy
- Davis Martin
- Nick Martinez
- Bailey Falter
- Jake Irvin
- Zack Littell
- Shane Smith
- Merrill Kelly
- Jose Berrios
- Jameson Taillon
- Taj Bradley
More Out% Pitchers To Sell
- Chris Paddack
- Andrew Abbott
- Will Warren
- Matthew Boyd
- Landen Roupp
- Chad Patrick
- David Peterson
