Edward Cabrera is an anomaly.
Cabrera broke onto the Major League scene in 2022 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts, boasting impressive stuff despite a well-below-average 11.3% walk rate. Since then, Cabrera has had a 4.51 ERA/4.45 FIP, as his command problems worsened and hitters adjusted to his unique stuff.
While his unique skillset, featuring a changeup reaching 97 mph, has yet to translate to consistently above-average MLB results, Cabrera has made some quiet changes in 2025 that could be the key to his breakout.
Since May 4th, Cabrera’s command has been excellent while his stuff has stayed above average, leading to excellent results despite having started against teams such as the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs and ever-competitive San Francisco Giants.
Cabrera’s pitch usage has varied by opponent, although some key trends have contributed to his better results.
- 5/4 vs. Athletics – CH 78.6% strike rate, CU 37.5 CSW%
- 5/10 @ White Sox – SI 35.3% usage and 30.0 CSW%, 18 called strikes
- 5/19 vs. Cubs – SI 38.9% usage and 34.3 CSW%, 37.8 CSW% overall
- 5/25 vs. Angels – CB and SL 64% and 75% whiff rate, respectively
- 5/31 vs. Giants – CH 67.9% strike rate, all five pitches >25.0 CSW%
Overall, these stats say one thing: Cabrera can shine in just about any way. When his fastballs were off, his breaking balls got him whiffs. When his breaking balls couldn’t get chases, he threw his fastballs and changeups for called strikes.
One of the perks of Cabrera’s five-pitch mix is the variety of shapes he can present a batter, as he has thrown each of his pitches at least 12% of the time in 2025. His high-octane stuff has not always induced whiffs, but the development of five shapes allows for each of his pitches to serve a different function.
Over his past five starts, each of Cabrera’s offerings succeeded uniquely, even if they struggled in other ways. If Cabrera can do this consistently, hitters will have a hard time.
This all stems from Cabrera’s command. Cabrera has ran an elite 19.7% called-strike rate on the season, ranked among the top of MLB, supplementing his average swinging-strike rate while keeping his pitch counts relatively low, a key tool for Cabrera as he has yet to be fully built up.
Going from a historically wild pitcher to posting prime Brady Singer called strike rates is unprecedented, to say the least. As a result, projecting Cabrera’s results with such a stark improvement is close to impossible.
The only thing we can do is keep an eye on upcoming results. His 7.5% walk rate and 108 Location+ over his last five starts would be excellent stats to sustain, although it’s worth keeping an eye on his results as a whole to understand how much his command has really improved.
Cabrera has historically been a second-half pitcher, as well. Under team control until 2029, a strong June could set Cabrera up to be one of the most coveted arms at this season’s trade deadline.
