Welcome back, deep leaguers! I’m in a good mood today because my Pirates swept their weekend series against the Mets. Not only did they sweep a team with a payroll nearly 1000 times larger than their own (might have to check that, but it FEELS right), they scored 30 runs in the series! It was a fun series to watch from my perspective, but we have to be careful as fantasy managers, as the Pirates have been one of our best streaming targets all year. Anyone who tried out Frankie Montas over the weekend has already learned their lesson. Just goes to show that you need to be re-evaluating teams all season long.
Fallers
Otto Kemp, First, Second and Third Base, Philadelphia Phillies – 2% Rostered
Kemp didn’t exactly set the world on fire during his first stint in the Majors. He did more or less hold his own with a .246/.325/.348 line with one homer and one steal over 77 plate appearances, holding down first base duties while Bryce Harper spent time on the IL. Kemp has well above average bat speed at 73 MHP, averaged a promising 90.8 MPH exit velocity and produced a slightly above average hard hit rate. He also has top-of-the-league sprint speed, but was caught in 2 of his 3 attempts so far.
He has struggled to make contact, though, posting chase and whiff rates north of 33% and an overall strikeout rate of 24.7%. That isn’t a good K rate by any means, but we see so many sluggers sitting around 30% that anything under 25% starts to look appealing, especially for players seeing their first big league action.
But the big reason Otto lands here is that Harper has returned from his IL stint. Kemp found himself on the bench for Harper’s return to action, and it looks like he’ll possibly slide into the weak side of a platoon with Max Kepler. I don’t want to drop Kemp if I don’t have to, so if you have bench spots available for now, consider holding. The trade deadline isn’t far away, and it’s possible a spot opens up. Otherwise, Kemp is a watch list guy for now, and a potential priority pickup later this month if he’s in line for more playing time.
Jack Leiter, Starting Pitcher, Texas Rangers – 25% Rostered
Leiter might be running out of gas. The rookie hurler has been burning less brightly as the season wears on. He pitched to a 2.03 ERA and .97 WHIP in April. Then he racked up a 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in May. He’s hit a wall in June, though, posting a 0-3 record along with a 5.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. And those June numbers come despite Leiter bookending the month with two strong starts (@TB and vs SEA), totalling 11 innings of one-run ball.
During his other three outings (@MIN, KC, @PIT), he allowed 13 runs in 13.2 innings. The Rays and Mariners oddly have the best two offences of those five teams, so if you tried deploying Leiter just against the weaker offences, things didn’t work out.
Leiter is mostly a fastball/slider guy, with those two offerings accounting for 60% of his pitches this year, but he does incorporate 5 different pitches at least 10% of the time. His sinker (18%) has graded out as his most effective pitch this year, with 6 runs saved. It’s also worth noting that Leiter had much better K and BB rates in June (22:9 in 24 innings) than he did in May (23:18 in 33 innings) despite posting a worse ERA and WHIP. He also suffered from a .311 BABIP in June.
But it’s not all just bad luck. Leiter is getting hit hard, allowing a 91.5 MPH average exit velocity along with a 45% hard hit rate. He’s also recorded just 58 strike outs and issued 32 walks in 71.1 total innings. The Rangers also have the 6th-lowest scoring offence in the Majors this year, which isn’t helping Leiter win even when he does pitch well.
Leiter does have a big fastball and gets great extension to help it play even bigger. I see a lot of potential in that heater and 5 pitch mix, but without big K numbers and an inflated walk rate, he offers too much risk without enough upside right now.
Cade Horton, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs – 15% Rostered
Horton had a solid, if unspectacular, debut month back in May. He posted a 2-0 record along with a 3.98 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a nice 16:4 K: BB ratio over 20 innings. But he wilted in June, with a 5.47 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a 17:10 K: BB ratio over 24 innings. Horton has modestly better underlying rates than Leiter does, even if I like his pitch mix a bit less.
Horton throws his heater just over 50% of the time, with his sweeper as his primary secondary offering. Neither pitch has graded out well. Horton’s four-seamer checks in with -5 runs saved, and his sweeper with -4. Negative is bad.
Horton also has well above average chase and whiff rates, but his paltry 16.5% K rate sits right at the bottom of the league. His 12.2% barrel rate is also one of the worst in the league, yet his exit velocity allowed is perfectly average. He also induces grounders at a well above average rate, and 7% walk rate is in the league’s top third.
So Horton does two of the three things we look for pretty well. He limits walks and gets hitters to put the ball on the ground. If he were able to increase that K rate, he’d do all the things we want pitchers to do, and he has the benefit of playing for the league’s second-highest scoring team. I think adjustments could be made (fewer four-seamers, more curve, and change-up usage), but I like Horton as a long-term guy.
I am concerned about his workload, though. Horton’s career high for innings pitched is just over 88, and he’ll reach that mark by the end of July if he keeps taking his normal turn in the rotation. It is very much possible that the Cubs will limit his innings or acquire a veteran starting pitcher for a playoff push. So, Horton is unlikely to be a major contributor to a fantasy team during our playoffs. If this is indeed the case, he would make an excellent target for non-playoff teams in dynasty and keeper formats.
Risers
Caleb Durbin, Second Base, Third Base, Short Stop, Milwaukee Brewers – 15% Rostered
Multi-position guys are pure gold in deep leagues. Those MI and CI spots can be revolving doors of despair for much of the year. Heck, there’s a good chance you already tried Durbin earlier this year and gave up on him during a down May that saw him hit just .202 with a .561 OPS. But Durbin bounced back in June, slashing .296/.363/.432 with 3 homers, a stolen base, and a whopping 19 runs scored. He’s been especially hot the last couple of weeks, batting .356 with 2 of those dingers and a dozen of those runs coming over that span.
So Durbin is a contact-first, power-later, if at all, kind of hitter. He does an excellent job laying off pitches out of the zone with a chase rate in the league’s top third. Durbin is also really good at making contact when he swings. His 14.6% whiff rate and 9.2% K rate both rank in the league’s top 10%. Look at his gorgeous contact chart.
The quality of contact leaves something to be desired, though. His 84.4 MPH exit velocity and 25% hard hit rate sit at the bottom of qualified MLB hitters. There is next to no power here. Durbin did steal 31 bases in 35 attempts in just 90 MiLB games last season, but is just 6 for 9 on the base paths this year.
He could offer some sneaky value if he ran more, but if not, he’s just a possible batting average boost who bats in the bottom third of his lineup and can’t be counted on to continue scoring runs like he did last month. I won’t say he’s a target, but he could be worth a speculative add if you need batting average or stolen bases, or have a big need in your middle infield.
Gary Sanchez, Catcher, Baltimore Orioles – 18% Rostered
Scary Gary has been handling most of the catching duties in Baltimore while Adley Rutschman nurses an oblique injury, and has been doing so with aplomb. Since Adley was sidelined in mid-June, Sanchez has batted .341 with a couple of round-trippers and 13 RBI. He’s produced a ludicrous 94 MPH average exit velocity and an equally ridiculous 61.4% hard hit rate on the year.
He still strikes a bunch with a K rate just under 25% and he doesn’t walk much at all, but Sanchez has been a real boost for a Baltimore team that has struggled to score runs all season. Adley looks like he’ll remain out through the All-Star break, so Sanchez should continue to see playing time. The Orioles are also well out of the playoff picture, sitting last in the AL East and already have both an entrenched starter in Adley and a big-time catcher prospect in Samuel Basallo, so Sanchez looks like a prime deadline trade candidate if he keeps hitting.
But mostly, I wanted to include Sanchez here because Hunter Goodman might hit the IL, which means lots of us will be missing our primary catcher. If you see yourself in that last sentence, Sanchez is my pick to weather Goodman’s absence for the next week or so (I hope) while he recovers. NOTE: I know Goodman played on Tuesday, I wrote all of that while the current news was that he was IL-bound, and chose to leave it because Goodman just missed four games, and we all just watched a very similar series of events unfold with Kerry Carpenter.
Justin Wrobleski, Starting Pitcher/Bulk Reliever, Los Angeles Dodgers – 6% Rostered
Wrobleski just finished off a June that saw him post a 3-1 record, with a robust 26:6 K: BB ratio, a 2.73 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP over 26 innings. He covered at least five innings in 5 of his 6 appearances, but only made a single start (6/6 @STL), appearing as a bulk reliever in his five other outings. Bulk relievers are an interesting wrinkle in our game lately. If you’re playing in a “quality start” league, rather than a “wins” league, they lose a ton of value compared to a traditional starter. Also, they often don’t appear on probable starter lists in fantasy apps, so it can be easy to miss them as streaming options. However, they can be sneaky good in points leagues that cap weekly starts.
But don’t sleep on Wrobleski. He throws six different pitches, with five of them seeing at least 10% usage rates. His heater averages over 95 MPH (terrible extension though) and has been his worst pitch according to runs saved, but he only uses it 28% of the time, and does generate a lot of whiffs with it. His sinker is his second most popular offering, and it generates very few whiffs, but does exactly what it’s supposed to do, induce grounders with an -8 degree average launch angle. I’d love to see Wrobleski use his sinker even more, maybe as his primary offering, with his heater as more of a two-strike, out-pitch option.
Wrobleski also benefits from playing in front of the highest-scoring team in the Majors. He might not have much job security if all of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers were healthy, but when is that ever the case? Do we see Glasnow or Ohtani pitching every fifth day? He currently lines up for a bulk appearance against the Astros this weekend, but likely won’t appear as a probable starter, so you’ll have to pay close attention.
Thanks for reading and good luck out there, deep leaguers!
