It’s been a fun month already for deep leaguers, as we’ve seen Jac Caglianone, Otto Kemp, Ryan Ritter, Roman Anthony and more big-name prospects all debut. Jac and Roman had likely been stashed all season in any serious deep leagues, but Kemp and Ritter rode more recent minor league success to the Majors. If you are not playing in dynasty leagues or keep track of minor league developments it can be easy to miss some of these guys. Take a minute to check out minor league leaderboards every now and then to see if any names look new. It is my favorite method of figuring out who might get called up when teams need spot starters. But this isn’t a dynasty column, we’re not all about the shiny new guys. Let’s get to the…
Fallers
Santiago Espinal, Second Base, Third Base, and Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 1% Rostered
This is gonna be more of a rant than usual. Espinal is 30 years old, has played in 500 MLB games, and has more than 1600 plate appearances in the Major Leagues. He has a career triple slash of .262/.318/.354 and has slashed just .240/.295/.286 so far this season. He has graded out as an average defensive infielder.
The fact that Santiago starts nearly every day for the Reds isn’t what gets me either. I am aware the Reds have multiple injuries to their infield, and I understand teams aren’t overflowing with .800 OPS sluggers. I do see the Pirate’s lineup daily after all. What kills me is that they insist on batting Espinal second most of the time. He’s started nine of their last 12 games (he did sit in two consecutive games following the return of Encarnacion-Strand) and slotted in the two hole for 7 of those 12 games.
Gavin Lux currently sports a .368 on-base percentage. He plays a lot of the same defensive positions as Espinal, (He also has batted second for the Reds in their last 3 games which is calming me down just a bit). Also, Lux is still rostered in just 12% of leagues.
I already featured Lux this season though, so this was my sneaky way of including him again while also pointing out that the Reds were engaging in lineup misconduct for well over a month. If he sticks in the top third, he could be in for a big boost in runs and RBI, go get him.
Spencer Steer, First Base and Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 41% Rostered
Steer may have only batted .225 last season, but that low batting average was accompanied by 20 dingers and 25 stolen bases. He hit 23 bombs back in 2023 and carried a .273 average that season, so seeing Steer sitting at just 4 homers and 3 steals with a .229 average in mid-June is pretty disappointing. His exit velocity is down a tick from last season, and two ticks from the year before. His barrel rate is in the league’s bottom 20% and his hard hit rate is in the bottom 10%. His last homer came all the way back on May 14th.
Steer had also carried above-average whiff and K rates through his last two campaigns but has been whiffing on more than a quarter of his swings this season and striking out in over a quarter of his at-bats. He also could be in line to lose some playing time with the return of Encarnacion-Strand, since it appears the Reds remain committed to getting Santiago Espinal’s bat in the lineup.
I don’t like what I see on his process chart either. His decision value has been roughly average all season, but his contact rate and power have drifted further and further from the league average as the season has progressed. I do not see any argument for a turnaround from my vantage point.
Josh Jung, Third Base, Texas Rangers – 53% Rostered
Jung had a solid rookie season back in 2023 that saw him bat .266 and slug 23 dingers in 515 plate appearances. He missed most of 2024 with various injuries but still batted .264 with 7 homers in just 188 plate appearances, still a 20+ home run pace. He’s already spent some time on the IL this season, but with a .270+ average and seven long balls to his name at the end of May, Jung still looked like the guy I targeted all over the place entering the year.
Jung has hit a wall though, going just 2 for 23 with no counting stats to speak of through his first seven games in June. The Rangers have also been the third-lowest-scoring team in the Majors this season, which hasn’t helped him accrue many runs or RBI.
I do mostly still like what I see from Jung though. His whiff and strikeout rates were dangerously close to 30% during his rookie season, and his whiff rate even shot up over 30% last year. But both rates have dropped closer to 25% this season. That’s still a bit below the league average, but not to the point where prolonged slumps become an expectation.
I am more concerned about his exit velocity and hard-hit rates which both ranked in the league’s top 20% back in 2023. So far this year, Jung’s exit velocity has fallen to the league’s bottom 20% while his hard rate comes in just a bit below the league average. Those are significant drops and his barrel rate has dropped a couple of percentage points as well. On the positive side, his process chart is trending in a more positive direction.
We can see a clear upward trend from his return from the IL in early April up until about the end of May when he levels out. His decision value is still less than ideal, but it has crept upwards and his contact and power have been average to above average all season. He has also suffered a .118 BABIP so far in June. I would temper expectations for his run and RBI totals as long the Rangers struggle as a team, but still think Jung will end up with 20-25 dingers and a .260-.275 average by the end of the year, assuming he stays healthy.
Risers
Adrian Houser, Starting Pitcher, Chicago White Sox – 16% Rostered
Houser, the 32-year-old veteran has made four starts this season since debuting on May 26th and all four have been quality starts. He currently sports a sparkling 1.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has struck out 20 batters and walked 6 over 24.1 innings. He’s been primarily a sinkerballer but has induced grounders at a slightly below-average rate.
He’s dropped his arm angle a bit each year since 2022, relied on his heater less, and is now getting the best extension of his career. However, he’s allowing a lot of hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is over 91 MPH and his hard hit rate against is nearly 50%, sitting in the league’s bottom 10%. Moreover, his whiff rate resides in the bottom 20% and his K rate has been just about average. He is doing a good job limiting free passes.
It is also the case that Houser’s four starts have come vs the Mariners, Orioles, Mets and Royals. The Mets have the top-scoring offense of those four teams, as they are currently MLB’s 8th highest-scoring team. But his next start is scheduled to be against the Rangers, so the Vargas rule is in full effect. You probably won’t want his following turn vs the Cardinals though.
Jo Adell, Outfield, Los Angeles Angels – 16% Rostered
Adell had a .545 OPS in April, a .836 OPS in May, and so far he has 1.285 OPS in June. Overall his 2025 line of .226/.297/.469 leaves something to be desired in the average and on-base bits, but his 12 homers and 32 RBI are certainly big numbers for deep leaguers. But Adell has posted big numbers in small samples before, and when those hot streaks ended, he was just a batting-average drag with a bit of pop and speed. He had two months in which he batted over .270 with an OPS over .800 last year, but also three months with batting averages of .200 or below, coupled with an OPS of .700 or lower.
This is the type of streakiness you get with a player who combines big bat speed with big swing-and-miss tendencies. Adell had 98th percentile bat speed last season and 99th percentile bat speed this season. He also whiffed at a 29.8% clip and struck out at a 27.9% rate last season. This year both of those numbers are a bit more palatable at 28% and 24.1% respectively, but also still sit in the league’s bottom third.
That process chart looks nice, but when we isolate his contact ability on the left chart, which only covers the last 3 weeks (the best part of Adell’s season) we can see he’s still below average at making contact, even when he’s posting huge numbers. Adell could absolutely be a stud if he could make more consistent contact, but I don’t think that’s the case just yet. My advice here is to shop Adell around while he’s hot.
Jesus Sanchez, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 15% Rostered
Almost went a week without a Marlin. Sanchez has a similar profile to Adell, but a little less extreme. He has top 10% bat speed, but his whiff (26.6%) and K (23%) rates are both in the league’s middle third. Sanchez also does a better job drawing free passes, with a walk rate of over 10%. He also looks like he has matured as a hitter since last season. His exit velocity has dipped from 92.5 MPH to 91.7 MPH but remains in the league’s top fifth. Conversely, his whiff and K rates mentioned above are both much better than his 31.2% whiff rate and 26% strike-out rate from 2024.
I’m going to use the same charts as I did with Adell, but the results are a little more surprising.
Again, the process chart overall looks good, but that contact chart is trending in the wrong direction. Sanchez batted .289 in May and is at .290 so far in June, so the contact chart reveal was a surprise, to say the least. He’s also walked just once against 10 strikeouts this month compared to a much stronger 11:18 BB:K ratio in May.
Still, I really like the gains Sanchez has made in terms of his overall whiff and K rates and don’t want to read too much into his recent dip in contact ability or walk rate. I still think he’ll be a bit streaky but to a lesser degree than Adell. Between the two, I think of Sanchez as a bit of a safer option. He has a higher floor thanks to his higher batting average, but perhaps a bit lower ceiling, as Adell possesses more power.
That’s it for week 11. Thanks as always for reading, happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there, and good luck deep leaguers!
