Jackson Holliday
After blistering through the Minor Leagues, Jackson Holliday made his MLB debut in 2024, posting just a 64 OPS+ in 60 games while the 20-year-old faced concerns for his Major League viability. Holliday entered 2025 with the second base job for an Orioles team with high expectations and, after a slow start, has turned it around despite the Orioles falling to just a 16-32 record.
Making more contact while hitting the ball harder will almost always lead to better results, and Holliday has seen that pay off — his 63 wRC+ in 2024 has nearly doubled (120 as of May 22nd) in 2025. Holliday also boasts an elite 23.1% O-Swing rate, as his swing decisions have vastly improved from last season.
Holliday’s favorable swing decisions allow his mediocre contact rates to work out well, and his recent power surge has boosted his Process+ into above-average territory.
Holliday is in a good spot. Still, there are some concerns — he struggles mightily against lefties (76 wRC+, 37.5% strikeout rate) while his long-term outlook defensively continues to decline (-2 FRV, likely restricted to second base).
Despite this, Holliday’s strongest tools outweigh his weaknesses. If he continues to improve like he did entering 2025, Orioles fans will have a star at second base for years to come.
Dylan Crews
After a solid cup of coffee in the Majors last year, Dylan Crews has taken a step back in 2025, posting a .196/.266/.354 triple slash before being placed on the 10-day IL on May 21st with an oblique strain. While his timetable for return is still unclear, Crews isn’t expected to miss too much time.
When Crews returns, however, Nationals fans are certainly hoping his brief hot streak will continue as well — Crews had posted a .987 OPS in his last nine games before injury.
Crews’ recent success, beginning with a two-homer night on April 19th, seems to be due to a combination of improved swing decisions and a sacrifice of contact in favor of power.
While Crews was getting quite unlucky early in the season, the improvement to both walks and strikeouts as his EVs moved above league average is a great adjustment.
Overall, Crews has the bones of a great player — with his elite defense and baserunning potential, hitting taking the right steps forward is key to his development. Post-injury, look for Crews to continue hitting the ball hard and getting on base for a Nationals team that needs all the offense it can get.
AJ Smith-Shawver
AJ Smith-Shawver has had an impressive 2025 season, posting a 2.33 ERA/3.41 FIP over 7 starts. Smith-Shawver’s unique skillset led to his promotion back in 2023 at just 20 years old, where he appeared quite overmatched. Smith-Shawver spent most of 2024 in AAA and re-entered the Braves rotation for 2025.
Smith-Shawver’s unique profile stems from his splitter — after dropping his arm angle ~7 degrees since 2023, his offspeed offering has changed from a solid changeup to a bonkers splitter with the second-highest Run Value in MLB, behind only Yoshinobu Yamamoto and ahead of elite splitters from Kodai Senga and Kevin Gausman.
Smith-Shawver has also improved his four-seam, giving him two well-above-average offerings to work with — they both allow him to excel against lefties, who have posted just a .154 AVG against him. However, his below-average slider and curveball have led to poor results against righties.
While Smith-Shawver is still just 23, some new weapons are likely necessary to fix his problems against righties. While his strong results vs lefties give him elite upside, adding something to induce weak contact (sinker/two-seam?) or whiffs (sweeper?) would be favorable.
In addition, some improvements to the command of his slider/curveball would be helpful.
Both pitches are centered not only in the heart of the zone but on the inside half to righties — if Smith-Shawver were to focus them low-and-outside more frequently, his swing-and-miss numbers would improve as well.
For now, I would consider Smith-Shawver an above-average arm with serious risk against strong, righty-heavy lineups. I would not expect his 2.33 ERA to continue over a full season, but a mid-3’s ERA in a tough NL East division would be an excellent outcome for the 23-year-old starter.
